It's Earnings Season, The Market is Speaking and Growth is Apparent

Earnings, Tariffs, and a Shifting Market: A Deep Dive Into My Watchlist and Strategy

Every earnings season tells a story, but this one feels different. Several companies in my watchlist reported recently, and the results paint a picture of an economy that is far more resilient than many commentators want to admit. Names like CAT, AAPL, and CMCSA all posted growth, while MO showed declines that were expected but still worth analyzing. Layered on top of these numbers is a broader theme I’ve believed for years: tariffs are reshaping American industry, especially steel, and the market is finally starting to reflect that reality.

This post brings together my recent trades, the earnings data, and the macro themes I’m watching. It’s a snapshot of how I’m thinking about the market right now — not as a prediction, but as a disciplined process grounded in data, price action, and a long-term view of American competitiveness.

Apple, Caterpillar, and Comcast: Signals From Different Corners of the Economy

I'll start with the companies that reported growth. Apple (AAPL) continues to show why it remains one of the most important companies in the world. Even with the stock pulling back from its highs, the fundamentals remain strong: high returns on equity, consistent free cash flow, and a balance sheet that gives it flexibility most companies can only dream of. The recent dip doesn’t concern me — if anything, it’s the kind of consolidation that often sets up the next move higher.

My feelings toward Apple are complicated, and I’m honest about that. On one hand, I see them as a company built on exploiting cheap labor, and that view is shaped by something personal: as a kid, I watched my father lose his job when Apple shifted production to China. Everyone knew what was happening, and the stress it put on him left a mark on me. He worked for a company that manufactured their PC boards, and when Apple left, the ripple effects were immediate. That experience never left me. So while I trade Apple’s stock because the numbers make sense, I would never personally buy or use their products. What still bothers me is how openly they pushed back on the President’s tariffs, arguing their phones would be too expensive if they were made here in the United States. That moment frustrated me because it felt like a missed opportunity to stand firm on rebuilding American manufacturing. My recent research shows Android leads globally, but Apple still dominates the U.S. market — a reminder that consumer loyalty doesn’t always align with the economic realities behind the products they buy.

Caterpillar (CAT) also delivered solid results, gaining nearly 2% after earnings. This is important because CAT is a barometer for industrial demand. When CAT is strong, it usually means construction, mining, and infrastructure activity are healthy. It also reinforces something I’ve been seeing across the industrial sector: tariffs and reshoring efforts are stimulating domestic production. When American manufacturers aren’t being undercut by artificially cheap imports, companies like CAT thrive.

Comcast (CMCSA) reported mixed numbers — revenue was down year-over-year, but earnings per share beat expectations. The market treated the report as stable, and I used the opportunity to take action. I sold a portion of my CMCSA position, capturing gains on most shares while realizing losses on others. That combination triggered a wash sale window, which I’m fine with. I expect to buy back at a discount once the 30-day period clears. This is the mechanical side of my trading system: take gains when they’re there, harvest losses when they’re useful, and re-enter when the math allows.

Altria (MO): Declines, Repositioning, and a Discount Re-Entry

Altria (MO) continues to face headwinds. Revenue declined again, and margins have been compressing for several quarters. None of this surprised me. I sold my MO shares at $63.65, locking in a 4% gain, and then repurchased at $59.77 after the market closed. This is exactly the kind of disciplined discount-buying that keeps my cost basis efficient. MO is still a cash-generating machine, but it’s also a company in transition. I’m not married to it, but I’m willing to trade it when the price gives me an edge.

My Watchlist: A Cross-Section of the U.S. Economy

My current filter, for yesterday's reporting companies include:

AAPL
AMP
AOS
CAT
CMCSA
INTC
MA
MKC
MO
PFSI
PHM
TMO

This list gives me a broad view of the economy: tech, industrials, housing, payments, consumer staples, semiconductors, and more. Each company tells a different part of the story, and together they help me understand where the pressure points and opportunities are forming.

Steel, Tariffs, and the Standard Deviation Strategy

Two names that sit inside my Standard Deviation Trading Strategy are Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE). Both are currently trading above my buy targets:

STLD – Target 1: 176.51, Target 2: 181.81, Current: 181.97
NUE – Target 1: 170.28, Target 2: 174.54, Current: 179.91

When a stock is above both tuple targets, it tells me momentum is strong and patience is required. I don’t chase. If price comes back into my range, I’ll act. If it doesn’t, that’s information too.

But the bigger story here is what’s driving the strength in steel. I recently saw a video clip of the President being recognized for his tariff policy, specifically its impact on the steel industry. And the numbers back it up. For decades, the U.S. has been stuck in what I call “Slavery Principles” — not literal slavery, but an economic mindset built on exploiting the cheapest labor possible. If it couldn’t be done cheaply here, we pushed “free trade” to exploit it abroad. Entire industries were hollowed out, and communities were left behind.

Tariffs don’t fix everything, but they do force global competitors to play fair. They give domestic producers a fighting chance, and you can see that reflected in the performance of companies like STLD and NUE. These aren’t speculative tech names — they’re the backbone of American industry. When they’re strong, it means something real is happening.

The Bigger Economic Picture

Nationally, I’m not seeing the slowdown that some people keep predicting. Industrial demand is strong. Tech is stabilizing. Housing is adjusting but not collapsing. And yields remain high, which is rewarding anyone positioned in T-Bills. For years — going back to the Bush Jr. era — yields were practically nonexistent. Now they’re meaningful again, and that changes how capital flows.

At the same time, I’m not blind to the challenges. Global tension is real. Younger generations are struggling. In places like New Jersey, local schools are underfunded and hoping for federal help. The economy is shifting, and not everyone is adapting at the same pace. But from a market perspective, the data doesn’t support the doom narrative.

Where I Stand Now

Right now, I’m focused on three things:

Harvesting gains where the math makes sense (CMCSA, MO).
Respecting my own rules around wash sales and re-entry.
Watching steel and industrial names as a barometer of how tariffs and policy are reshaping the economy.

I don’t pretend to know exactly where the market goes next. But I do know this: a disciplined process, a clear watchlist, and a willingness to question the old “cheap labor at any cost” model are going to matter more and more as this economy keeps changing. Tariffs, industrial policy, and domestic competitiveness aren’t just political talking points — they’re forces that are actively reshaping the market in real time.

As always, I’ll keep tracking the numbers, adjusting my positions, and refining my strategy. The goal isn’t to predict the future — it’s to stay aligned with the data and act when the opportunity is there.

The Telecom Pendulum Swings Back: Why AT&T Is Re‑Emerging as the Industry’s Focal Point

For more than a century, American telecommunications have moved in cycles — consolidation, fragmentation, reinvention, and consolidation again. AT&T once stood as the immovable monopoly, the backbone of American communications. Then came the breakup, the rise of Verizon, the arrival of T‑Mobile from Europe, and a long era where AT&T looked more like a lumbering incumbent than an innovator.

But over the last three years, something interesting has happened: the pendulum is swinging back.

AT&T is quietly regaining momentum. Comcast is reporting broadband softness but wireless subscriber growth. T‑Mobile continues to expand but is no longer the only growth story. Verizon remains steady but is no longer the default “premium” choice. And across the industry, the shift toward fiber, 5G, and converged connectivity is reshaping competitive dynamics.

The result? Investors are re‑evaluating the telecom landscape — and AT&T is suddenly back in the conversation.

The Last Three Years: A Slow, Uneven Realignment

The 2020–2023 period was chaotic for telecom. The pandemic created a surge in broadband demand, but it also masked deeper structural issues. Wireless competition intensified. Cable companies entered the mobile market. Capital expenditures ballooned as carriers raced to build out 5G and fiber. And Wall Street punished any company that didn’t deliver immediate growth.

By 2024, the cracks were visible:

Cable broadband growth slowed, especially for Comcast, which has recently reported broadband declines even as wireless phone subscribers increased.
Wireless competition intensified, with T‑Mobile leading in subscriber adds and Verizon struggling to maintain premium positioning.
Capex began to fade, as major carriers pulled back after years of heavy 5G investment.

But the most important shift was strategic: telecom companies began pivoting from “growth at any cost” to “profitable, converged connectivity.”

And that’s where AT&T found its opening.

AT&T’s Re‑Emergence: A Return to Core Strengths

AT&T’s most recent earnings show a company that has rediscovered discipline. The firm reported strong fourth‑quarter and full‑year results, driven by growth in converged fiber and 5G customers.

A few standout points:

AT&T met or exceeded all 2025 financial guidance.
Fiber and 5G convergence is driving profitability.
Customer satisfaction is highest among subscribers who bundle wireless and internet.
The company returned over $12 billion to shareholders in 2025, with plans to return $45 billion+ from 2026–2028.

This is not the AT&T of the DirecTV and Time Warner era — the one that chased media dreams and drowned itself in debt. This is a leaner, more focused AT&T that has embraced the boring but lucrative business of connectivity.

And investors are noticing.

Why Are Consumers Pivoting Back to AT&T?

The consumer shift is subtle but real. Over the last few years, T‑Mobile captured the “value” segment with aggressive pricing and strong 5G performance. Verizon held onto the “premium” segment. AT&T was stuck in the middle.

But the middle is now the sweet spot.

1. Fiber is winning the broadband war

Cable broadband is slowing. Comcast’s recent reports show broadband declines, even as wireless phone subscribers increase. Fiber, on the other hand, is growing — and AT&T is one of the largest fiber builders in the country.

2. Converged bundles are sticky

AT&T’s strategy is simple: If you buy wireless and fiber together, you get a better deal — and you’re less likely to leave.

This is exactly what their latest earnings highlight: convergence drives profitability and customer satisfaction.

3. Reliability matters again

After years of price wars, consumers are rediscovering that reliability, coverage, and customer service matter. AT&T’s network performance has improved dramatically, and its churn numbers reflect that.

What About Verizon and T‑Mobile?

The other two major carriers aren’t standing still.

T‑Mobile (TMUS)

T‑Mobile continues to grow, especially in postpaid subscribers and ARPU (average revenue per user). Their Q3 2025 results show strong ARPA growth and continued premium plan adoption. But the company is maturing. It’s no longer the scrappy underdog — it’s a national incumbent with rising costs and integration challenges from recent acquisitions.

Verizon (VZ)

Verizon’s recent results show mixed performance. In Q3 2025, AT&T added 405,000 net postpaid phone subscribers — the highest net adds among the Big Three — while Verizon lagged. Verizon remains a stable, dividend‑oriented company, but it’s no longer the automatic choice for premium customers.

The Big Picture

All three carriers are “back on track and growing stronger,” according to industry analysis. But the growth trajectories differ — and AT&T’s is the one that stands out right now.

The Investment Angle: Why AT&T Is Back in Focus

Telecom stocks have always attracted income‑oriented investors. But the last decade was rough: high debt, expensive spectrum auctions, and massive 5G buildouts weighed on balance sheets.

Now the tide is turning.

1. AT&T’s free cash flow is rising

The company expects higher free cash flow through 2028. For dividend investors, this is the metric that matters.

2. Fiber is a long‑term moat

Fiber is expensive to build but extremely profitable once deployed. AT&T’s fiber footprint gives it a durable competitive advantage over cable.

3. Wireless growth is stabilizing

Postpaid phone adds remain strong across the industry, but AT&T is leading in net adds in key quarters.

4. Capex is normalizing

Industry‑wide capital expenditures are fading after years of heavy 5G investment. Lower capex = higher free cash flow.

5. The valuation gap is widening

AT&T trades at a lower multiple than Verizon or T‑Mobile, despite improving fundamentals. For value‑oriented investors, that’s an opportunity.

The Broader Trend: Convergence Is the Future

The telecom industry is moving toward a simple model:

One provider for everything — wireless, home internet, and connected devices.

This is why AT&T’s strategy is working. This is why Comcast is pushing into wireless. This is why T‑Mobile is expanding its home internet offering. This is why Verizon is bundling aggressively.

The next three years will be defined by:

Fiber expansion
5G monetization
AI‑driven network optimization
Converged bundles
Lower churn and higher ARPU

Telecom is becoming less about raw subscriber numbers and more about the lifetime value of each household.

Conclusion: The Market Is Re‑Rating AT&T — And For Good Reason

After years of being written off as a bloated legacy carrier, AT&T is re‑emerging as a disciplined, focused, and increasingly competitive force. The company’s recent results show real momentum, driven by fiber growth, wireless convergence, and improved financial execution.

Meanwhile, Comcast’s broadband softness, Verizon’s mixed results, and T‑Mobile’s maturation are reshaping investor expectations across the sector.

The telecom pendulum is swinging again — and this time, it’s swinging back toward AT&T.

For investors looking for stability, yield, and long‑term infrastructure‑driven growth, AT&T may once again be the focal point of the American telecom story.

Disclaimer:

The views expressed in this article reflect my personal opinions and interpretations of recent industry developments. This content is provided solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be considered financial, investment, or professional advice. I currently own shares of all companies mentioned and continue to purchase additional shares, which may influence my perspective. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Texas Instruments: A Quiet Compounder in a Noisy Market

Every investor has a few companies they keep coming back to—names that earn trust not through hype, but through consistency. For me, Texas Instruments (TXN) has always been one of those stocks. It’s not flashy, it’s not chasing headlines, and it’s certainly not trying to reinvent itself every two years. Instead, TI does something far more valuable in today’s market: it executes with discipline, invests with intention, and rewards shareholders with a level of reliability that’s becoming rare.

At its core, TI is an analog (Embedded-Analog) processing powerhouse. These aren’t the segments that dominate social media or spark retail‑trader frenzies, but they are the backbone of modern electronics. Cars, factories, medical devices, energy systems, industrial automation—almost everything that matters in the real economy depends on analog chips. And unlike the high‑end digital space, analog isn’t a race to the smallest node or the fastest clock speed. It’s a business built on long product cycles, sticky customer relationships, and decades‑long demand curves.

That’s exactly why TI stands out. While other semiconductor companies ride boom‑and‑bust waves, TI’s model is built for stability. Their manufacturing strategy—owning and expanding internal production, including advanced 300‑mm analog fabs—gives them cost advantages that compound over time. Lower manufacturing costs translate into stronger margins, and stronger margins translate into more cash returned to shareholders.

And TI returns cash with a level of commitment that borders on old‑school. The company has raised its dividend for more than 20 consecutive years, often at double‑digit rates. It pairs that with steady share repurchases, all funded by real free cash flow, not financial engineering. In a market where buybacks often feel like a marketing tactic, TI’s capital allocation philosophy is refreshingly grounded.

What impresses me most, though, is how TI invests through cycles. When the industry slows, TI doesn’t panic. It builds. It expands capacity. It strengthens its product portfolio. It positions itself for the next decade, not the next quarter. That long‑term mindset is exactly why the company continues to grow revenue, expand its footprint in industrial and automotive markets, and maintain one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector.

Investors often chase the next big thing, but TXN rewards those who appreciate the power of steady compounding. It’s the kind of stock you can hold through noise, volatility, and economic uncertainty because the underlying business isn’t built on trends—it’s built on fundamentals. Strong cash generation, disciplined spending, durable demand, and a shareholder‑first philosophy form a combination that’s hard to beat.

In a world where many companies talk about long‑term vision, Texas Instruments actually practices it. That’s why it remains one of my favorite holdings. Not because it’s the loudest stock in the room, but because it’s one of the most dependable. And in the long run, dependability is what builds real wealth. At the time of writing, TXN is up, pre-market, over 8%. My largest watchlist gainer, pre-market.

NJ's Middle-Class Squeeze: Too Much for Help, Not Enough for Comfort

This is a long post — longer than what I usually write — because what I’m talking about here isn’t a small annoyance or a passing frustration. It’s something that has been building for years, and I’m finally putting it all into words. I’m upset, I’m exhausted, and I’m passionate about what follows, because it affects every working person in this state who’s trying to stay afloat.

There’s a growing group in New Jersey — people who work full‑time, sometimes more than one job, who earn too much to qualify for assistance but not enough to absorb the constant increases in living costs. These are the people tightening their budgets, lowering their thermostats, cutting back wherever they can, and still watching their bills rise for reasons that have nothing to do with their own usage or behavior.

If you’re part of that group, or you know someone who is, then what follows will probably resonate with you. And if you’re not, then I hope this gives you a clearer picture of what the middle class in New Jersey is being asked to carry — and why so many of us are reaching a breaking point.

This group includes people like me. Struggling, trying to adapt, and live within my means.

What are somethings I do, that deprive comfort? I turn my thermostat down to 66 degrees in the winter. Not because I enjoy being cold, but because I’m trying to keep my bills manageable. I turn my thermostat up in the summer, 74 degrees, to use less electricity. I’ve spent thousands of dollars improving the efficiency of my home, recently, wrapping the structure in Tyvek, trying to seal any drafts, upgraded windows, and even removed an entire window on a northwest-facing wall because it received no sunlight and contributed to what I calculated as 25% of my potential window draft/convection.

That’s not luxury. That’s discipline. That’s sacrifice. That’s doing the right thing. And yet, despite all that effort, my bill keeps rising. Not because of my usage, but because of the fees layered on top of it. I know this, my bills are documented in Spreadsheets. I can see it, my usage is down, I'm generating my own electricity, we have a clothesline. Expense is rising rapidly. I'm angry, to say the least.

To make ends meet and stay ahead of these rising costs, I’ve had to get creative. I’ve joined the gig economy, spending my extra hours behind the wheel for Lyft. It’s in that car, driving across this state, where the reality of NJ’s economic divide becomes most apparent. For example, a person I drove recently wasn’t worried about their utility bill at all. Why would they be? Their cost is capped. The state picks up the rest. This isn’t resentment. It’s recognition of a structural imbalance.

Forced Charity vs. Voluntary Charity

I believe in charity. I believe in helping people who genuinely need help. But charity should be voluntary, not forced through utility bills that offer no transparency, no choice, and no opt‑out.

When the state mandates that one group subsidizes another, without limit and without accountability, that’s not charity. That’s a transfer of responsibility from the government to the middle class.

And it’s happening quietly, through line items most people never question.

The Incentive Problem No One Wants to Talk About

Programs like USF were designed to prevent vulnerable households from losing heat or electricity. That’s a noble goal. But the structure creates a perverse incentive:

If your bill is capped, conservation becomes irrelevant.

That’s why you see:

window AC units left installed all winter
inefficient appliances running constantly
no behavioral incentive to reduce usage

Meanwhile, the middle class is told to conserve, upgrade, weatherize, and “do their part.”

NJ's system rewards waste and punishes responsibility. We keep electing people that push this imbalance further.

The Real Cost: Not Just Dollars, but Trust

When people feel like they’re paying into a system that doesn’t respect their effort or sacrifice, trust erodes. And once trust erodes, civic engagement collapses.

That’s why so few middle‑class residents file comments with the BPU, imo. They assume it won’t matter.

But it does.

Every rate increase, every program expansion, every adjustment to the SBC or USF is influenced by who speaks up... and who stays silent.

Right now, I believe the middle class is largely silent. I think you are being taken advantage of too.

A System Worth Fixing

New Jersey’s energy assistance programs were built with good intentions. But good intentions don’t guarantee good outcomes. When a system becomes unbalanced—when it places too much weight on the people who already carry the most... it needs to be recalibrated.

My Lyft ride didn’t make me angry at the person in the back seat. It made me aware of the quiet, growing burden on the people in the front seat—the ones driving, working, paying, and trying to stay afloat.

The middle class deserves a system that recognizes their effort, respects their contribution, and doesn’t treat them as an endless source of subsidy.

Where This All Leads — And Why It Should Concern Every Middle-Class New Jerseyan

I’m not a political theorist, but I know what I’m seeing. When a system tries to make everyone “equal” by pulling some people down while artificially lifting others up, that’s not fairness. That’s not balance. And it’s certainly not sustainable.

It resembles the kind of economic structure where outcomes are engineered rather than earned — where the state decides who pays, who receives, and how much. And the people footing the bill have no say in the matter. Whether or not someone wants to call that “communist,” the direction is unmistakable: forced redistribution without accountability.

And the consequences are already visible.

New Jersey is experiencing an exodus. The last numbers I saw showed roughly 35,000 more people leaving than entering. People don’t uproot their lives for no reason. They leave because the cost of living is suffocating, the taxes are relentless, and the policies keep shifting more burden onto the people who are already stretched thin.

I’ve seen it in my own family. My niece left the state because the taxes on her home and the everyday cost of living were simply too high. Years ago, I considered leaving too. Ironically, staying may have saved my life — medical issues from blood clots may have made a move disastrous. But the fact that I even had to weigh my health against the financial pressure of living here says everything.

And now, with expansions to low‑income housing subsidies and percentage‑based utility programs, the burden grows heavier. These programs don’t just help people in need — they shield recipients from the consequences of their own consumption, while the rest of us pay more. There’s no incentive to conserve, no awareness of the impact on others, and no limit to how much the state can demand from the middle class to fund it.

It’s frankly disturbing.

Real Solutions — Not More Burden on the Middle Class

If New Jersey insists on maintaining percentage‑based utility caps, then the system needs structural reform. Here are solutions that actually make sense:

1. Reduce the Usage Cap

If someone’s bill is capped at a percentage of income, then the allowed usage should be capped too. Not unlimited. Not open‑ended. Not “use whatever you want and someone else pays.”

A capped bill should come with a capped consumption allowance.

2. Require Energy Efficiency Measures

If taxpayers and ratepayers are subsidizing someone’s utilities, then the property should be required to meet basic efficiency standards:

weatherization
sealed windows
no window AC units left in all winter
efficient appliances

If the middle class is forced to conserve, the subsidized class should too.

3. Use Subsidized Housing for Solar Generation

If the state wants to reduce energy burden, then subsidized housing should be leveraged as an asset, not a liability.

Cover the rooftops with solar arrays. Install community solar on unused land. Turn these properties into net generators, not endless consumers.

Flood them with solar panels — let them produce energy instead of wasting it.

This would reduce the USF burden, lower statewide demand, and create long‑term savings instead of endless subsidies.

If You’re Tired of Paying for a Broken System — Speak Up

You don’t need to “consider” contacting anyone. You can do it today. These are, to my understanding, Public Offices, funded by taxes, and they exist to hear from the public.

New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU)

Main Number: 609‑292‑1599 Board Secretary (Public Comments): 609‑984‑5320

New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel

Consumer Assistance: 973‑648‑2690 Toll‑Free: 1‑800‑624‑0331

Governor’s Office (Public Input Line)

Constituent Services: 609‑292‑6000

New Jersey Legislature Offices

You can call your district office directly. Legislative Information: 1‑800‑792‑8630

These are not private numbers, to my understanding, they are the official public contact lines for state agencies and elected offices. They exist for exactly this purpose.

If the middle class doesn’t speak up, the system will continue shifting more weight onto the people who already carry the most. I encourage everyone feeling this to speak-up.

New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU) https://www.nj.gov/bpu/

Division of Rate Counsel https://www.nj.gov/rpa/

New Jersey Legislature District Map https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/district-map (njleg.state.nj.us in Bing)

South Jersey Gas Filings (General Page) https://publicaccess.bpu.state.nj.us/ (publicaccess.bpu.state.nj.us in Bing)

NJ Outmigration Data (General Reference) https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html

Paychex (PAYX): A Quiet Compounder Trading Near Its Lows... Opportunity Might be Knocking?

Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX) is one of those rare companies that manages to be both boring and brilliant at the same time. It doesn’t chase hype cycles, it doesn’t reinvent itself every two years, and it doesn’t need to. Instead, it sits at the center of a massive, recurring‑revenue ecosystem: payroll, HR outsourcing, benefits administration, and compliance services for hundreds of thousands of businesses.

And right now, this steady compounder is trading near the bottom of its 52‑week range.

A Business Built on Recurring Revenue and Employer Stickiness

Paychex’s business model is beautifully simple: Handle the messy, mandatory, recurring tasks that every employer must do.

According to recent financial breakdowns, the company’s valuation is driven by three primary divisions:

Division	% of Stock Price Contribution
Management Solutions	70.05%
HR Outsourcing & Other Services	22.61%
Interest Earned on Client Funds	4.86%
Cash Net of Debt	2.48%

Management Solutions—payroll, tax filing, compliance, and workforce tools—remains the core engine. HR outsourcing continues to grow as small and mid‑sized businesses shift toward bundled, subscription‑based HR support.

This diversification gives PAYX a defensive profile, especially during economic uncertainty.

Coding for Tax Alpha: Automating Dividend Retention in Google Sheets

In the world of active trading, we often focus on the "spread"—the difference between where we buy and where we sell. But for the dividend-focused investor, there is a hidden "leak" that can drain your returns faster than a market dip: Tax Inefficiency.

Recently, I’ve been diving deeper into the concept of Dividend Retention. This isn't just about collecting a check; it's about the strategic realization that the tax code is designed to "push" or persuade investors into specific behaviors. If you play by the rules, the IRS rewards you with lower rates. If you don't, you pay a "impatience tax."

Today, I’m sharing how I’ve automated this logic using Google Sheets (as my Database) and my Custom and Patented Python Program, Quant Trade, to ensure I never accidentally sell a stock that is on the verge of becoming a "Qualified" dividend powerhouse. This gets fairly deep into coding, particularly on GoogleSheets. It's nice having a versatile database that functions and shortens our Python Use and Needs. Lets dive-in!

The Motive: Qualified vs. Ordinary Income

The tax code provides a massive incentive for holding stocks longer. Depending on your taxable income, Qualified Dividends are taxed at 0%, 15%, or 20%. If a dividend is non-qualified, it's taxed as Ordinary Income, which can be as high as 37%.

To the IRS, the difference between these two is a timer. To qualify for those lower rates, you must hold the shares for more than 60 days during the 121-day period that surrounds the ex-dividend date.

If you are trading based on price targets alone, you might hit your "Sell" signal on day 58. By selling then, you might capture a capital gain, but you’ve just converted a low-tax dividend into a high-tax one. My goal was to build a system that says: "Yes, the price is right to sell, but the tax timing is wrong. Wait."

The Tech Stack: Google Sheets & Python

I use Google Sheets as my primary database because of its ability to handle real-time stock intervals and its flexible filtering. My Python program, Quant Trade, handles the heavy lifting—updating entry dates and times in Column A whenever a trade occurs.

The system works in three distinct layers of filtering.

Layer 1: The "Qualified" Universe

Not every stock pays a dividend worth chasing. My first filter identifies tickers that pay a yield higher than the current High-Yield Savings Account (HYSA) rate and ensures they aren't on my "Non-Qualified" list (like REITs or certain foreign entities).

=sort(filter(Watchlist!$A$30:A,Watchlist!$G$30:$G>Watchlist!$D$28,ISNA(MATCH(Watchlist!$A$30:A, Watchlist!$Y$57:$Y, 0))),1,true)

Layer 2: The 61-Day Holding Gate

Once we have our list of stocks, we need to look at our specific iterations of trades. We are looking for rows where the action is a "Buy" and the status is "Partially Executed." Using the timestamp provided by Quant Trade, I calculate a "Hold Until" date. If today’s date hasn't reached that 61-day mark, the ticker is added to a "Dividend Retention List."

=IFNA(
LET(
tkr, $A3,
buys, FILTER(
MICHAEL!$B$40:$B,
MICHAEL!$C$40:$C = tkr,
MICHAEL!$D$40:$D = "Buy",
MICHAEL!$H$40:$H <> "Drip",
MICHAEL!$I$40:$I = "Partially Executed"
),
lastBuy, MAX(buys),
holdUntil, lastBuy + 61,
IF(holdUntil > TODAY(), tkr, "")
),
"")

Cal-Maine Foods: A Decline, A Trigger, and A Long-Term View

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) has been sliding recently, and that decline finally brought the stock into the range of my next tuple—an iteration in my accumulation process that signals when to add shares. When the price met that level, I followed my system and increased my position.

For context, Cal-Maine’s latest earnings release painted a mixed picture. Net sales came in at $769.5 million, down 19.4% from the prior year, largely due to lower egg prices and softer shell‑egg volumes. Conventional egg sales fell sharply, while specialty egg sales held almost flat. Prepared foods, however, were a standout: revenue surged 586%, driven by the Echo Lake Foods acquisition and the company’s broader push into value‑added products.

Profitability also took a hit. Gross profit declined 41.8%, and net income dropped 53.1%, reflecting the cyclical nature of the egg market and the temporary pressures of expansion projects. These numbers explain the market’s reaction—and the price decline that triggered my latest purchase.

But the same report also highlighted why I remain confident in the business. Specialty eggs and prepared foods now make up a much larger share of total sales, and management expects that mix to continue shifting in their favor. Specialty eggs alone accounted for nearly half of shell‑egg revenue this quarter, and prepared foods capacity is set to expand by 30% over the next 18–24 months. The company is also virtually debt‑free, giving it flexibility to invest, acquire, and weather the cyclical downturns that define the industry.

That combination - strong balance sheet, expanding specialty mix, and a growing prepared‑foods platform - keeps me optimistic about Cal-Maine’s long‑term trajectory. I’m not buying because the stock is falling; I’m buying because the decline intersected with a predefined level in my system, and the fundamentals still support the thesis.

This purchase fits directly into my Augmented Income Strategy (A.I.S.), which is built around accumulating quality income‑producing assets at predefined price intervals rather than reacting emotionally to market swings. CALM’s decline brought the stock into the next tuple in my sequence, triggering an incremental buy based on my modified Fibonacci logic. The goal isn’t to predict short‑term direction but to steadily increase income potential by adding shares when price and volatility align with my rules. As long as the business fundamentals remain intact, each tuple‑based entry strengthens the long‑term income stream the strategy is designed to build.

My exit tuple reflects the same philosophy. As price steps downward through each tuple, the expected total return rises because the model blends appreciation targets with the dividend component. That combination creates a built‑in asymmetry: lower entries carry higher potential exits, not because I’m predicting a rebound, but because the math of Aggregated Appreciation naturally widens the spread as volatility expands. When the market eventually reassesses the company or responds to improving fundamentals, those earlier disciplined entries convert that widening spread into realized gains.

My next purchase tuple sits at 70.78, based on a modified Fibonacci logic I’ve been refining over the past few years. If the price reaches that level, I’ll follow the same disciplined process. If it doesn’t, I’m content with the shares I’ve accumulated.

None of this is investment advice. It’s simply my ongoing effort to document the reasoning, structure, and discipline behind my own trades especially in moments when the market tests conviction. Readers should do their own research and consider further, the recent change in diet advice. CALM