Two Sides to Every Sale: Thoughts on Blue Owl’s Loan Announcement and the Market Reaction

Yesterday’s sharp sell-off in Blue Owl and several other BDC-related names caught a lot of people off guard. The catalyst was simple:
Blue Owl announced that they sold a portion of their loans slightly below par.

That single disclosure triggered a wave of fear — not just in their stock, but across the entire sector. Headlines focused on “discounted loan sales,” and investors reacted as if this were a sign of systemic weakness.

But after thinking about it for nearly a full day, I’ve come to a different conclusion — one rooted in a basic truth that too many people forget:

Every Sale Has Two Sides

When something is sold below par, the instinct is to assume distress. But that’s only one possible explanation. In markets — whether we’re talking about stocks, bonds, loans, or even merchandise — professionals make decisions based on expectations. That’s the real root of this thesis.

My Own Recent Trades Prove the Point

Over the past few months, I’ve been buying U.S. Treasuries — both 20‑year and 30‑year — below par. Some of these purchases were around 97% of face value.

Now, why would someone sell me long‑dated Treasuries at a discount?

Most people jump to the obvious answer:
“They needed capital.”

Sure, that’s possible. Liquidity needs, debt payments, or dividend obligations can force sales.

But experienced investors know there’s another layer:
strategy.

The seller may have believed interest rates were going to rise. They may have wanted to rotate into shorter duration. They may have been repositioning ahead of a macro shift. Or they may have simply preferred to lock in gains elsewhere.

Meanwhile, my strategic view is the opposite. With COVID behind us, debt levels rising, and the Fed eventually needing to ease, I see a path where long‑term rates drift lower. If that happens, the value of the Treasuries I bought at a discount will rise.

Same sale.
Two sides.
Two different expectations.

Applying That Lens to Blue Owl

Blue Owl sold loans slightly below par. That’s the fact.
But the interpretation is where investors split.

The market assumed:
“Discounted sale = trouble.”

But what if the sale was strategic?

What if Blue Owl expects a better loan environment ahead?
What if they wanted to clean up older positions to make room for higher‑quality originations?
What if they see a shift in the technology sector — where these loans were concentrated — and want to reposition before AI‑driven volatility reshapes valuations?

Remember:
A sale below par does not automatically mean distress.
It can just as easily mean opportunity, rotation, or forward‑looking strategy.

And yes — the fact that these loans were in the technology sector added fuel to the fire. AI is reshaping industries, scaring some investors, and creating uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty.

But uncertainty does not equal weakness.

My Position on BDCs Right Now

I’m not trimming my BDC holdings. I still believe tariffs are necessary to restore balance to American industry. For decades, off‑balance trade conditions pushed companies overseas — Apple’s move to China before the iPhone era is still one of the clearest examples.

Tariffs help level the playing field. A stronger domestic manufacturing base supports stronger domestic lending. And BDCs thrive when American businesses thrive.

That said, I’ve placed my BDC investments on a 30‑day hold. Not because I’m bearish — but because I want to see what new information surfaces. Strategic moves often reveal their purpose with time.

If Blue Owl believes the loan environment is improving, this sale could actually be a positive signal, not a negative one.

Final Thought

Markets often react emotionally to headlines. But investing requires stepping back and remembering the simple truth:

Every sale has two sides and the seller’s reason is not always the one the market assumes.

I also believe the market tests our intelligence and discipline constantly. It’s a strategic ecosystem, not a scoreboard. When one participant gains, another often gives something up... and those dynamics force us to think beyond the surface.

These are my thoughts. Avoiding emotional, reaction‑driven decisions is very important. The hardest part of investing isn’t the math… it’s resisting the instinct to respond quickly, rather than thoughtfully. When we stay grounded, patient, and analytical, we give ourselves the best chance to understand what’s really happening beneath the headlines.

Disclosure

This post reflects my personal opinions and interpretations. It is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Seeking a Balance Between Quick Returns and Income, Strategy Based Investing

The Statistical Safety Net: Why I Trade Volatility, Not Fear

Market crashes are the ghosts that haunt the halls of Wall Street. For many, the mere mention of a "recession" or a "market collapse" triggers a frantic reach for the "Stop Loss" button. We’ve been conditioned to believe that when the red candles start stacking up, the only rational response is to cut our losses and run.

But early in my journey, I encountered a paradox that changed my trajectory forever. While firms were folding and portfolios were evaporating during a major market downturn, I watched the legends—specifically Peter Lynch—not just survive, but flourish. Lynch’s career at the Magellan Fund proved a profound truth: the market’s "bad weather" doesn’t have to freeze your progress. If you have the right jacket, you can stay warm while everyone else is shivering.

For me, that "jacket" is a blend of Lynch’s common-sense philosophy and a rigorous, math-based approach to buying the dip. This isn't just about intuition; it's about two distinct engines of growth: the Medeiros Alpha Strategy (MAS) and my Augmented Income Strategy (AIS).

Moving Beyond the "Stop Loss" Ideology

The traditional Stop Loss is often marketed as a safety tool, but in reality, it is a mechanism that turns temporary "paper losses" into permanent "realized losses." It forces you to sell at the very moment a stock becomes a better value.

I stand against this ideology. Instead of letting fear dictate my exit, I let Standard Deviation dictate my entry.

I utilize a 45-day Standard Deviation (StDev) as my milestone. This isn't just a random number; it represents a statistical boundary. In a normal distribution of price movements, a stock staying within its standard deviation is "business as usual." When it falls outside that deviation, the market is overreacting.

When the price declines by a factor of one StDev, I don’t see a signal to flee—I see a signal to iterate. I increase my shares. If it drops another 45-day StDev from that new point, I buy again. This is a logic rooted in mean reversion: the belief that quality equities will eventually return to their mathematical average.

The Lynch Influence: Investing in the Tangible

Peter Lynch famously suggested that some of his best ideas came from the mall or the grocery store. Lynch’s philosophy acts as my compass for what to buy (the largest, most recognizable companies), while my Standard Deviation model acts as my clock for when to buy.

By focusing on "The Giants"—the largest companies in the world—I am betting on resilience. While it’s true that even a titan like General Electric (GE) can experience an enormous, painful decline, there is a lesson in its persistence. The giants have the resources to fight for their lives and restructure. In a world of bankruptcies, the giants linger.

Modified Fibonacci: The Power of the Iteration

To make this strategy work during a true collapse, I employ a Modified Fibonacci Logic. This is the "amplifier" of my strategy.

When a stock hits that first 45-day StDev drop, I buy. If it hits a second, I don't just buy the same amount; I increase the quantity. This aggressive "averaging down" lowers my cost basis significantly. More importantly, as the quantity of shares increases, I also increase my "desired gain" percentage for the exit.

This creates a convex payout. If I’m holding a massive position at a 3σ (three standard deviation) low, the eventual "snap-back" to the mean generates an outsized profit because of the sheer volume of shares accumulated at the bottom.

The Dual Engines: MAS vs. Augmented Income

As I refine this approach, I’ve bifurcated my logic into two distinct, high-functioning engines. The Medeiros Alpha Strategy (MAS) is my growth and recovery vehicle. Here, the 45-day Standard Deviation acts as a beacon, marking both my strategic entry points and my profit-taking milestones.

But my Augmented Income Strategy operates on a completely different set of values—it’s built for the long haul.

This strategy is geared strictly toward generating passive income. I’m looking for high-frequency payouts, compounding potential, and long-term yield. Because these are often monthly dividend payers, I utilize a tighter 30-day Standard Deviation window to capture those quick, temporary dips. In this lane, the "sell side" of the iteration is effectively removed; I am not looking for an exit, I am looking for an accumulation.

Harmony in Automation

What makes this strategy truly powerful is how it works in unison with my daily life. These price-targeted trade iterations aren't my only move—they are a tactical addition to my Automatic Monthly Acquisitions (Dollar Cost Averaging).

I favor E-Trade for their "Automatic Investing" option, which allows me to build my positions steadily regardless of the weather. By combining E-Trade's automation with my own manual acquisitions during 30-day StDev dips, I create a double-layered defense. The machine handles the consistency, while I handle the opportunity. Together, they ensure that my portfolio is always growing, always compounding, and always moving closer to total financial independence.

"To a traditional trader, the idea of buying a dip with no intention to sell sounds like heresy. But for the income-focused investor, it is the ultimate form of discipline. I am not looking to 'flip' these assets; I am looking to hoard them for their returns."

Final Thoughts: The Hoarder's Edge

When a monthly payer drops by a factor of one or two Standard Deviations, it doesn't just mean the stock is cheaper—it means the Effective Yield has moved in my favor. By applying the Fibonacci-style scale to these purchases, I am aggressively capturing a larger "dividend footprint" at the exact moment the market is devaluing it.

We are always at risk of a collapse. But if you stop viewing price drops as "losses" and start viewing them as "statistical milestones," the entire game changes. I don’t need an exit strategy for an asset that pays me to own it. I’d rather have a strategy that buys the fear than a stop-loss that sells it.

Feature	Medeiros Alpha Strategy (MAS)	Augmented Income Strategy (AIS)
Primary Goal	Capital Gains + Recovery	Passive Income / Cash Flow
Time Horizon	45-Day StDev	30-Day StDev
Sell Side	Profit milestones included	None (Asset Hoarding)

Disclaimer:
The information in this post reflects my personal opinions, research, and trading activity. It is not financial advice, investment guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Everyone’s financial situation and risk tolerance are different, and readers should do their own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. I may hold positions in the companies mentioned, and my views may change at any time based on new data or market conditions.

It's Earnings Season, The Market is Speaking and Growth is Apparent

Earnings, Tariffs, and a Shifting Market: A Deep Dive Into My Watchlist and Strategy

Every earnings season tells a story, but this one feels different. Several companies in my watchlist reported recently, and the results paint a picture of an economy that is far more resilient than many commentators want to admit. Names like CAT, AAPL, and CMCSA all posted growth, while MO showed declines that were expected but still worth analyzing. Layered on top of these numbers is a broader theme I’ve believed for years: tariffs are reshaping American industry, especially steel, and the market is finally starting to reflect that reality.

This post brings together my recent trades, the earnings data, and the macro themes I’m watching. It’s a snapshot of how I’m thinking about the market right now — not as a prediction, but as a disciplined process grounded in data, price action, and a long-term view of American competitiveness.

Apple, Caterpillar, and Comcast: Signals From Different Corners of the Economy

I'll start with the companies that reported growth. Apple (AAPL) continues to show why it remains one of the most important companies in the world. Even with the stock pulling back from its highs, the fundamentals remain strong: high returns on equity, consistent free cash flow, and a balance sheet that gives it flexibility most companies can only dream of. The recent dip doesn’t concern me — if anything, it’s the kind of consolidation that often sets up the next move higher.

My feelings toward Apple are complicated, and I’m honest about that. On one hand, I see them as a company built on exploiting cheap labor, and that view is shaped by something personal: as a kid, I watched my father lose his job when Apple shifted production to China. Everyone knew what was happening, and the stress it put on him left a mark on me. He worked for a company that manufactured their PC boards, and when Apple left, the ripple effects were immediate. That experience never left me. So while I trade Apple’s stock because the numbers make sense, I would never personally buy or use their products. What still bothers me is how openly they pushed back on the President’s tariffs, arguing their phones would be too expensive if they were made here in the United States. That moment frustrated me because it felt like a missed opportunity to stand firm on rebuilding American manufacturing. My recent research shows Android leads globally, but Apple still dominates the U.S. market — a reminder that consumer loyalty doesn’t always align with the economic realities behind the products they buy.

Caterpillar (CAT) also delivered solid results, gaining nearly 2% after earnings. This is important because CAT is a barometer for industrial demand. When CAT is strong, it usually means construction, mining, and infrastructure activity are healthy. It also reinforces something I’ve been seeing across the industrial sector: tariffs and reshoring efforts are stimulating domestic production. When American manufacturers aren’t being undercut by artificially cheap imports, companies like CAT thrive.

Comcast (CMCSA) reported mixed numbers — revenue was down year-over-year, but earnings per share beat expectations. The market treated the report as stable, and I used the opportunity to take action. I sold a portion of my CMCSA position, capturing gains on most shares while realizing losses on others. That combination triggered a wash sale window, which I’m fine with. I expect to buy back at a discount once the 30-day period clears. This is the mechanical side of my trading system: take gains when they’re there, harvest losses when they’re useful, and re-enter when the math allows.

Altria (MO): Declines, Repositioning, and a Discount Re-Entry

Altria (MO) continues to face headwinds. Revenue declined again, and margins have been compressing for several quarters. None of this surprised me. I sold my MO shares at $63.65, locking in a 4% gain, and then repurchased at $59.77 after the market closed. This is exactly the kind of disciplined discount-buying that keeps my cost basis efficient. MO is still a cash-generating machine, but it’s also a company in transition. I’m not married to it, but I’m willing to trade it when the price gives me an edge.

My Watchlist: A Cross-Section of the U.S. Economy

My current filter, for yesterday's reporting companies include:

AAPL
AMP
AOS
CAT
CMCSA
INTC
MA
MKC
MO
PFSI
PHM
TMO

This list gives me a broad view of the economy: tech, industrials, housing, payments, consumer staples, semiconductors, and more. Each company tells a different part of the story, and together they help me understand where the pressure points and opportunities are forming.

Steel, Tariffs, and the Standard Deviation Strategy

Two names that sit inside my Standard Deviation Trading Strategy are Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE). Both are currently trading above my buy targets:

STLD – Target 1: 176.51, Target 2: 181.81, Current: 181.97
NUE – Target 1: 170.28, Target 2: 174.54, Current: 179.91

When a stock is above both tuple targets, it tells me momentum is strong and patience is required. I don’t chase. If price comes back into my range, I’ll act. If it doesn’t, that’s information too.

But the bigger story here is what’s driving the strength in steel. I recently saw a video clip of the President being recognized for his tariff policy, specifically its impact on the steel industry. And the numbers back it up. For decades, the U.S. has been stuck in what I call “Slavery Principles” — not literal slavery, but an economic mindset built on exploiting the cheapest labor possible. If it couldn’t be done cheaply here, we pushed “free trade” to exploit it abroad. Entire industries were hollowed out, and communities were left behind.

Tariffs don’t fix everything, but they do force global competitors to play fair. They give domestic producers a fighting chance, and you can see that reflected in the performance of companies like STLD and NUE. These aren’t speculative tech names — they’re the backbone of American industry. When they’re strong, it means something real is happening.

The Bigger Economic Picture

Nationally, I’m not seeing the slowdown that some people keep predicting. Industrial demand is strong. Tech is stabilizing. Housing is adjusting but not collapsing. And yields remain high, which is rewarding anyone positioned in T-Bills. For years — going back to the Bush Jr. era — yields were practically nonexistent. Now they’re meaningful again, and that changes how capital flows.

At the same time, I’m not blind to the challenges. Global tension is real. Younger generations are struggling. In places like New Jersey, local schools are underfunded and hoping for federal help. The economy is shifting, and not everyone is adapting at the same pace. But from a market perspective, the data doesn’t support the doom narrative.

Where I Stand Now

Right now, I’m focused on three things:

Harvesting gains where the math makes sense (CMCSA, MO).
Respecting my own rules around wash sales and re-entry.
Watching steel and industrial names as a barometer of how tariffs and policy are reshaping the economy.

I don’t pretend to know exactly where the market goes next. But I do know this: a disciplined process, a clear watchlist, and a willingness to question the old “cheap labor at any cost” model are going to matter more and more as this economy keeps changing. Tariffs, industrial policy, and domestic competitiveness aren’t just political talking points — they’re forces that are actively reshaping the market in real time.

As always, I’ll keep tracking the numbers, adjusting my positions, and refining my strategy. The goal isn’t to predict the future — it’s to stay aligned with the data and act when the opportunity is there.

The Telecom Pendulum Swings Back: Why AT&T Is Re‑Emerging as the Industry’s Focal Point

For more than a century, American telecommunications have moved in cycles — consolidation, fragmentation, reinvention, and consolidation again. AT&T once stood as the immovable monopoly, the backbone of American communications. Then came the breakup, the rise of Verizon, the arrival of T‑Mobile from Europe, and a long era where AT&T looked more like a lumbering incumbent than an innovator.

But over the last three years, something interesting has happened: the pendulum is swinging back.

AT&T is quietly regaining momentum. Comcast is reporting broadband softness but wireless subscriber growth. T‑Mobile continues to expand but is no longer the only growth story. Verizon remains steady but is no longer the default “premium” choice. And across the industry, the shift toward fiber, 5G, and converged connectivity is reshaping competitive dynamics.

The result? Investors are re‑evaluating the telecom landscape — and AT&T is suddenly back in the conversation.

The Last Three Years: A Slow, Uneven Realignment

The 2020–2023 period was chaotic for telecom. The pandemic created a surge in broadband demand, but it also masked deeper structural issues. Wireless competition intensified. Cable companies entered the mobile market. Capital expenditures ballooned as carriers raced to build out 5G and fiber. And Wall Street punished any company that didn’t deliver immediate growth.

By 2024, the cracks were visible:

Cable broadband growth slowed, especially for Comcast, which has recently reported broadband declines even as wireless phone subscribers increased.
Wireless competition intensified, with T‑Mobile leading in subscriber adds and Verizon struggling to maintain premium positioning.
Capex began to fade, as major carriers pulled back after years of heavy 5G investment.

But the most important shift was strategic: telecom companies began pivoting from “growth at any cost” to “profitable, converged connectivity.”

And that’s where AT&T found its opening.

AT&T’s Re‑Emergence: A Return to Core Strengths

AT&T’s most recent earnings show a company that has rediscovered discipline. The firm reported strong fourth‑quarter and full‑year results, driven by growth in converged fiber and 5G customers.

A few standout points:

AT&T met or exceeded all 2025 financial guidance.
Fiber and 5G convergence is driving profitability.
Customer satisfaction is highest among subscribers who bundle wireless and internet.
The company returned over $12 billion to shareholders in 2025, with plans to return $45 billion+ from 2026–2028.

This is not the AT&T of the DirecTV and Time Warner era — the one that chased media dreams and drowned itself in debt. This is a leaner, more focused AT&T that has embraced the boring but lucrative business of connectivity.

And investors are noticing.

Why Are Consumers Pivoting Back to AT&T?

The consumer shift is subtle but real. Over the last few years, T‑Mobile captured the “value” segment with aggressive pricing and strong 5G performance. Verizon held onto the “premium” segment. AT&T was stuck in the middle.

But the middle is now the sweet spot.

1. Fiber is winning the broadband war

Cable broadband is slowing. Comcast’s recent reports show broadband declines, even as wireless phone subscribers increase. Fiber, on the other hand, is growing — and AT&T is one of the largest fiber builders in the country.

2. Converged bundles are sticky

AT&T’s strategy is simple: If you buy wireless and fiber together, you get a better deal — and you’re less likely to leave.

This is exactly what their latest earnings highlight: convergence drives profitability and customer satisfaction.

3. Reliability matters again

After years of price wars, consumers are rediscovering that reliability, coverage, and customer service matter. AT&T’s network performance has improved dramatically, and its churn numbers reflect that.

What About Verizon and T‑Mobile?

The other two major carriers aren’t standing still.

T‑Mobile (TMUS)

T‑Mobile continues to grow, especially in postpaid subscribers and ARPU (average revenue per user). Their Q3 2025 results show strong ARPA growth and continued premium plan adoption. But the company is maturing. It’s no longer the scrappy underdog — it’s a national incumbent with rising costs and integration challenges from recent acquisitions.

Verizon (VZ)

Verizon’s recent results show mixed performance. In Q3 2025, AT&T added 405,000 net postpaid phone subscribers — the highest net adds among the Big Three — while Verizon lagged. Verizon remains a stable, dividend‑oriented company, but it’s no longer the automatic choice for premium customers.

The Big Picture

All three carriers are “back on track and growing stronger,” according to industry analysis. But the growth trajectories differ — and AT&T’s is the one that stands out right now.

The Investment Angle: Why AT&T Is Back in Focus

Telecom stocks have always attracted income‑oriented investors. But the last decade was rough: high debt, expensive spectrum auctions, and massive 5G buildouts weighed on balance sheets.

Now the tide is turning.

1. AT&T’s free cash flow is rising

The company expects higher free cash flow through 2028. For dividend investors, this is the metric that matters.

2. Fiber is a long‑term moat

Fiber is expensive to build but extremely profitable once deployed. AT&T’s fiber footprint gives it a durable competitive advantage over cable.

3. Wireless growth is stabilizing

Postpaid phone adds remain strong across the industry, but AT&T is leading in net adds in key quarters.

4. Capex is normalizing

Industry‑wide capital expenditures are fading after years of heavy 5G investment. Lower capex = higher free cash flow.

5. The valuation gap is widening

AT&T trades at a lower multiple than Verizon or T‑Mobile, despite improving fundamentals. For value‑oriented investors, that’s an opportunity.

The Broader Trend: Convergence Is the Future

The telecom industry is moving toward a simple model:

One provider for everything — wireless, home internet, and connected devices.

This is why AT&T’s strategy is working. This is why Comcast is pushing into wireless. This is why T‑Mobile is expanding its home internet offering. This is why Verizon is bundling aggressively.

The next three years will be defined by:

Fiber expansion
5G monetization
AI‑driven network optimization
Converged bundles
Lower churn and higher ARPU

Telecom is becoming less about raw subscriber numbers and more about the lifetime value of each household.

Conclusion: The Market Is Re‑Rating AT&T — And For Good Reason

After years of being written off as a bloated legacy carrier, AT&T is re‑emerging as a disciplined, focused, and increasingly competitive force. The company’s recent results show real momentum, driven by fiber growth, wireless convergence, and improved financial execution.

Meanwhile, Comcast’s broadband softness, Verizon’s mixed results, and T‑Mobile’s maturation are reshaping investor expectations across the sector.

The telecom pendulum is swinging again — and this time, it’s swinging back toward AT&T.

For investors looking for stability, yield, and long‑term infrastructure‑driven growth, AT&T may once again be the focal point of the American telecom story.

Disclaimer:

The views expressed in this article reflect my personal opinions and interpretations of recent industry developments. This content is provided solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be considered financial, investment, or professional advice. I currently own shares of all companies mentioned and continue to purchase additional shares, which may influence my perspective. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Texas Instruments: A Quiet Compounder in a Noisy Market

Every investor has a few companies they keep coming back to—names that earn trust not through hype, but through consistency. For me, Texas Instruments (TXN) has always been one of those stocks. It’s not flashy, it’s not chasing headlines, and it’s certainly not trying to reinvent itself every two years. Instead, TI does something far more valuable in today’s market: it executes with discipline, invests with intention, and rewards shareholders with a level of reliability that’s becoming rare.

At its core, TI is an analog (Embedded-Analog) processing powerhouse. These aren’t the segments that dominate social media or spark retail‑trader frenzies, but they are the backbone of modern electronics. Cars, factories, medical devices, energy systems, industrial automation—almost everything that matters in the real economy depends on analog chips. And unlike the high‑end digital space, analog isn’t a race to the smallest node or the fastest clock speed. It’s a business built on long product cycles, sticky customer relationships, and decades‑long demand curves.

That’s exactly why TI stands out. While other semiconductor companies ride boom‑and‑bust waves, TI’s model is built for stability. Their manufacturing strategy—owning and expanding internal production, including advanced 300‑mm analog fabs—gives them cost advantages that compound over time. Lower manufacturing costs translate into stronger margins, and stronger margins translate into more cash returned to shareholders.

And TI returns cash with a level of commitment that borders on old‑school. The company has raised its dividend for more than 20 consecutive years, often at double‑digit rates. It pairs that with steady share repurchases, all funded by real free cash flow, not financial engineering. In a market where buybacks often feel like a marketing tactic, TI’s capital allocation philosophy is refreshingly grounded.

What impresses me most, though, is how TI invests through cycles. When the industry slows, TI doesn’t panic. It builds. It expands capacity. It strengthens its product portfolio. It positions itself for the next decade, not the next quarter. That long‑term mindset is exactly why the company continues to grow revenue, expand its footprint in industrial and automotive markets, and maintain one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector.

Investors often chase the next big thing, but TXN rewards those who appreciate the power of steady compounding. It’s the kind of stock you can hold through noise, volatility, and economic uncertainty because the underlying business isn’t built on trends—it’s built on fundamentals. Strong cash generation, disciplined spending, durable demand, and a shareholder‑first philosophy form a combination that’s hard to beat.

In a world where many companies talk about long‑term vision, Texas Instruments actually practices it. That’s why it remains one of my favorite holdings. Not because it’s the loudest stock in the room, but because it’s one of the most dependable. And in the long run, dependability is what builds real wealth. At the time of writing, TXN is up, pre-market, over 8%. My largest watchlist gainer, pre-market.

NJ's Middle-Class Squeeze: Too Much for Help, Not Enough for Comfort

This is a long post — longer than what I usually write — because what I’m talking about here isn’t a small annoyance or a passing frustration. It’s something that has been building for years, and I’m finally putting it all into words. I’m upset, I’m exhausted, and I’m passionate about what follows, because it affects every working person in this state who’s trying to stay afloat.

There’s a growing group in New Jersey — people who work full‑time, sometimes more than one job, who earn too much to qualify for assistance but not enough to absorb the constant increases in living costs. These are the people tightening their budgets, lowering their thermostats, cutting back wherever they can, and still watching their bills rise for reasons that have nothing to do with their own usage or behavior.

If you’re part of that group, or you know someone who is, then what follows will probably resonate with you. And if you’re not, then I hope this gives you a clearer picture of what the middle class in New Jersey is being asked to carry — and why so many of us are reaching a breaking point.

This group includes people like me. Struggling, trying to adapt, and live within my means.

What are somethings I do, that deprive comfort? I turn my thermostat down to 66 degrees in the winter. Not because I enjoy being cold, but because I’m trying to keep my bills manageable. I turn my thermostat up in the summer, 74 degrees, to use less electricity. I’ve spent thousands of dollars improving the efficiency of my home, recently, wrapping the structure in Tyvek, trying to seal any drafts, upgraded windows, and even removed an entire window on a northwest-facing wall because it received no sunlight and contributed to what I calculated as 25% of my potential window draft/convection.

That’s not luxury. That’s discipline. That’s sacrifice. That’s doing the right thing. And yet, despite all that effort, my bill keeps rising. Not because of my usage, but because of the fees layered on top of it. I know this, my bills are documented in Spreadsheets. I can see it, my usage is down, I'm generating my own electricity, we have a clothesline. Expense is rising rapidly. I'm angry, to say the least.

To make ends meet and stay ahead of these rising costs, I’ve had to get creative. I’ve joined the gig economy, spending my extra hours behind the wheel for Lyft. It’s in that car, driving across this state, where the reality of NJ’s economic divide becomes most apparent. For example, a person I drove recently wasn’t worried about their utility bill at all. Why would they be? Their cost is capped. The state picks up the rest. This isn’t resentment. It’s recognition of a structural imbalance.

Forced Charity vs. Voluntary Charity

I believe in charity. I believe in helping people who genuinely need help. But charity should be voluntary, not forced through utility bills that offer no transparency, no choice, and no opt‑out.

When the state mandates that one group subsidizes another, without limit and without accountability, that’s not charity. That’s a transfer of responsibility from the government to the middle class.

And it’s happening quietly, through line items most people never question.

The Incentive Problem No One Wants to Talk About

Programs like USF were designed to prevent vulnerable households from losing heat or electricity. That’s a noble goal. But the structure creates a perverse incentive:

If your bill is capped, conservation becomes irrelevant.

That’s why you see:

window AC units left installed all winter
inefficient appliances running constantly
no behavioral incentive to reduce usage

Meanwhile, the middle class is told to conserve, upgrade, weatherize, and “do their part.”

NJ's system rewards waste and punishes responsibility. We keep electing people that push this imbalance further.

The Real Cost: Not Just Dollars, but Trust

When people feel like they’re paying into a system that doesn’t respect their effort or sacrifice, trust erodes. And once trust erodes, civic engagement collapses.

That’s why so few middle‑class residents file comments with the BPU, imo. They assume it won’t matter.

But it does.

Every rate increase, every program expansion, every adjustment to the SBC or USF is influenced by who speaks up... and who stays silent.

Right now, I believe the middle class is largely silent. I think you are being taken advantage of too.

A System Worth Fixing

New Jersey’s energy assistance programs were built with good intentions. But good intentions don’t guarantee good outcomes. When a system becomes unbalanced—when it places too much weight on the people who already carry the most... it needs to be recalibrated.

My Lyft ride didn’t make me angry at the person in the back seat. It made me aware of the quiet, growing burden on the people in the front seat—the ones driving, working, paying, and trying to stay afloat.

The middle class deserves a system that recognizes their effort, respects their contribution, and doesn’t treat them as an endless source of subsidy.

Where This All Leads — And Why It Should Concern Every Middle-Class New Jerseyan

I’m not a political theorist, but I know what I’m seeing. When a system tries to make everyone “equal” by pulling some people down while artificially lifting others up, that’s not fairness. That’s not balance. And it’s certainly not sustainable.

It resembles the kind of economic structure where outcomes are engineered rather than earned — where the state decides who pays, who receives, and how much. And the people footing the bill have no say in the matter. Whether or not someone wants to call that “communist,” the direction is unmistakable: forced redistribution without accountability.

And the consequences are already visible.

New Jersey is experiencing an exodus. The last numbers I saw showed roughly 35,000 more people leaving than entering. People don’t uproot their lives for no reason. They leave because the cost of living is suffocating, the taxes are relentless, and the policies keep shifting more burden onto the people who are already stretched thin.

I’ve seen it in my own family. My niece left the state because the taxes on her home and the everyday cost of living were simply too high. Years ago, I considered leaving too. Ironically, staying may have saved my life — medical issues from blood clots may have made a move disastrous. But the fact that I even had to weigh my health against the financial pressure of living here says everything.

And now, with expansions to low‑income housing subsidies and percentage‑based utility programs, the burden grows heavier. These programs don’t just help people in need — they shield recipients from the consequences of their own consumption, while the rest of us pay more. There’s no incentive to conserve, no awareness of the impact on others, and no limit to how much the state can demand from the middle class to fund it.

It’s frankly disturbing.

Real Solutions — Not More Burden on the Middle Class

If New Jersey insists on maintaining percentage‑based utility caps, then the system needs structural reform. Here are solutions that actually make sense:

1. Reduce the Usage Cap

If someone’s bill is capped at a percentage of income, then the allowed usage should be capped too. Not unlimited. Not open‑ended. Not “use whatever you want and someone else pays.”

A capped bill should come with a capped consumption allowance.

2. Require Energy Efficiency Measures

If taxpayers and ratepayers are subsidizing someone’s utilities, then the property should be required to meet basic efficiency standards:

weatherization
sealed windows
no window AC units left in all winter
efficient appliances

If the middle class is forced to conserve, the subsidized class should too.

3. Use Subsidized Housing for Solar Generation

If the state wants to reduce energy burden, then subsidized housing should be leveraged as an asset, not a liability.

Cover the rooftops with solar arrays. Install community solar on unused land. Turn these properties into net generators, not endless consumers.

Flood them with solar panels — let them produce energy instead of wasting it.

This would reduce the USF burden, lower statewide demand, and create long‑term savings instead of endless subsidies.

If You’re Tired of Paying for a Broken System — Speak Up

You don’t need to “consider” contacting anyone. You can do it today. These are, to my understanding, Public Offices, funded by taxes, and they exist to hear from the public.

New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU)

Main Number: 609‑292‑1599 Board Secretary (Public Comments): 609‑984‑5320

New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel

Consumer Assistance: 973‑648‑2690 Toll‑Free: 1‑800‑624‑0331

Governor’s Office (Public Input Line)

Constituent Services: 609‑292‑6000

New Jersey Legislature Offices

You can call your district office directly. Legislative Information: 1‑800‑792‑8630

These are not private numbers, to my understanding, they are the official public contact lines for state agencies and elected offices. They exist for exactly this purpose.

If the middle class doesn’t speak up, the system will continue shifting more weight onto the people who already carry the most. I encourage everyone feeling this to speak-up.

New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU) https://www.nj.gov/bpu/

Division of Rate Counsel https://www.nj.gov/rpa/

New Jersey Legislature District Map https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/district-map (njleg.state.nj.us in Bing)

South Jersey Gas Filings (General Page) https://publicaccess.bpu.state.nj.us/ (publicaccess.bpu.state.nj.us in Bing)

NJ Outmigration Data (General Reference) https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html

Paychex (PAYX): A Quiet Compounder Trading Near Its Lows... Opportunity Might be Knocking?

Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX) is one of those rare companies that manages to be both boring and brilliant at the same time. It doesn’t chase hype cycles, it doesn’t reinvent itself every two years, and it doesn’t need to. Instead, it sits at the center of a massive, recurring‑revenue ecosystem: payroll, HR outsourcing, benefits administration, and compliance services for hundreds of thousands of businesses.

And right now, this steady compounder is trading near the bottom of its 52‑week range.

A Business Built on Recurring Revenue and Employer Stickiness

Paychex’s business model is beautifully simple: Handle the messy, mandatory, recurring tasks that every employer must do.

According to recent financial breakdowns, the company’s valuation is driven by three primary divisions:

Division	% of Stock Price Contribution
Management Solutions	70.05%
HR Outsourcing & Other Services	22.61%
Interest Earned on Client Funds	4.86%
Cash Net of Debt	2.48%

Management Solutions—payroll, tax filing, compliance, and workforce tools—remains the core engine. HR outsourcing continues to grow as small and mid‑sized businesses shift toward bundled, subscription‑based HR support.

This diversification gives PAYX a defensive profile, especially during economic uncertainty.