The Signal Amidst the Noise

When Price Targets Say “Yes”… but Momentum Says “Not Yet” — Spreadsheets Step In The Consumer Staples sector has been under pressure for months… and the weakness has been especially visible across packaged‑food names. GIS , CPB , CAG have all drifted lower… even as their valuations approach historically attractive levels. PEP and KDP have also been soft, with PEP only recently showing signs of life. On paper, this looks like a classic bargain‑hunter’s environment. Oddly, PEP and KDP are trading above my Price Targets, yet they sit within my Momentum filters… while other sector‑related companies sit comfortably inside their Price Targets but outside their Momentum filters. Under a simple valuation model, this would be the moment to scale in. But valuation alone is not my system… and my system is increasingly defined by the spreadsheets I have built and refined over years of iteration and coding. These sheets are not just trackers… they are behavioral filters… probability e...

The financial headlines are buzzing this week as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both notched fresh all-time highs. For those of us who have been in the trenches for a while, these numbers feel like more than just data points... they are milestones of a long, steady climb. Remembering the Milestones It’s easy to forget how significant the "thousands" felt when we first crossed them. Seeing the S&P 500 at its current levels brings back that distinct sense of shock from years ago: The 3,000 Mark: First breached on July 12, 2019 . The 4,000 Mark: Crossed on April 1, 2021 . While the market lacks the frantic, overnight tenacity of the crypto world... there is a deep reassurance in this slow and steady growth. It represents the compounding power of traditional equity markets... the kind of growth that isn't just appearing out of thin air but is built on the back of corporate earnings and economic resilience. Executing on Momen...

A Peculiar 4/15/2026 Tax Day always carries a certain tension... a national ritual of procrastination, caffeine, and overloaded servers. This year, the news claims a huge portion of Americans still hadn’t filed by morning, which means the internet may be sweating harder than the taxpayers. Meanwhile, the East Coast is warming up like it’s auditioning for July. My solar panels are probably out there doing laps, generating more than their fair share of electrons. If there were a leaderboard for “Most Productive Panels on Tax Day,” I’d like to think mine would place respectably. But for me, April 15th isn’t just Tax Day. It’s Treasury Day ... and that’s where the real action was. Yesterday’s Moves: Quiet, Intentional, and Very Much on Strategy 1. The 30‑Year Re‑Issue The Treasury reopened the February long bond, offering a fresh slice of the same maturity at a discount. Same coupon. Same 2056 endpoint. Same slow, dependable heartbeat of semiannual interest. My transaction po...

After Two Years... The Return of the Defensive Income Giant: JEPI When I looked at my portfolio distribution this morning, the reality was clear: I am very heavy on Treasuries and light on Equities. This is by design. My "Compounding Beasts"... I-Bonds and my stable income payers... 30-Year Treasury Bonds... provide the bedrock of my wealth targets. However, my Equity -  Augmented Income Strategy (AIS) is where the tactical battle is won, and recently, a familiar face has triggered a "Watch Mode" alert: JEPI (JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF). Two years ago, I took profits on JEPI , exited the position. I had enjoyed the monthly dividends for quite a while, and a favorable shift in price allowed me to exit with a mild profit. At the time, I shifted my focus to the mechanical "Buy-Write" engines of QYLD and RYLD , which have since climbed into my top 10 equity holdings. B...

When I last wrote about Sempra (SREA) , I was focused on the migration of "idle" capital. I wanted my money out of the passive safety of High-Yield Savings and into the high-utility world of infrastructure and energy. But a quant’s work is never done. In this market, if you sit still, you aren't just stagnant... you’re decaying. Over the last month, I’ve stress-tested my entry and exit parameters against the "flushes" of the opening bell across our family portfolios... from the Joint account with my Wife to my Daughter's IRA. The result? An overhaul of the Medeiros Alpha Strategy (MAS) and the Augmented Income Strategy (AIS) . I’ve tightened the timeframes, added a "Triple-Branch" momentum gauge, and integrated a logic layer that challenges the traditional Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) . The Geopolitical Context: Crude and Conflict There is a war currently surrounding oil. The wealth of the world... nasty, dirty, stinky crude... is the ...

In the evolution of a Quant-based portfolio, there comes a moment where "cheap" is no longer enough. For years, my Augmented Income Strategy (AIS) was a pure game of Mean Reversion: if a high-quality ticker dropped below its -1.05 Standard Deviation (StDev) target, it was a buy. It was simple, effective, and sometimes—painfully—early. Today, I am marking a fundamental shift in my capital allocation. I am moving liquidity out of the "parking lot" of High-Yield Savings Accounts (HYSA) and into a specific income asset: Sempra 5.75% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2079 (SREA) . What makes this purchase different isn't just the asset; it’s the Multi-Layered Filtering now driving my decisions. The Logic Shift: Merging AIS with MAS Historically, I reserved my "Trend and Momentum" metrics (MAS Strategy) for growth stocks. But as market volatility has increased, I’ve realized that income seekers can no longer afford to "catch falling knives." I have n...