AMCR, Discipline... and the 8% Adjustment That Broke My Usual Pattern

Every now and then, a position inside my Augmented Income Strategy (A.I.S.) forces me to pause... reassess... and make a move that bends my usual rules without breaking them. Yesterday, AMCR did exactly that. It took a massive decline, for a "low beta" Stock, it was unusual but there are Wars occurring around the globe and they make weird opportunities arise.

After further reading... Citi raised their price target by 8%... a notable shift for a packaging company that typically trades in slow, steady increments. Citi, like Prudential, is a "Conglomerate" in the Investment/Finance World... Under normal circumstances, analyst revisions don’t influence my system. I hold steady and wait for the noise to stop. Adjustments by larger firms are often reactive, and my A.I.S. framework is built to prioritize long‑term qualified dividends, not short‑term enthusiasm. I'm not selling and the shares in my view are solid. Almost equal to Preferred Stocks. To explain where I see, "Near Preferred Status," AMCR isn’t a generic packaging play. It sits in a niche that’s structurally different... and structurally necessary.

While food packaging dominates the industry, AMCR’s deeper footprint in medical‑grade packaging gives it a defensive posture that’s hard to replicate. Wars increase demand for sterile supplies. An aging Baby Boomer population requires more medical interventions. A chronically ill nation depends on consistent, safe distribution of pharmaceuticals and diagnostic materials. And that last point matters... diagnostics have become one of the fastest‑growing segments in healthcare. Identifying disease earlier, faster, and more accurately requires packaging that meets strict regulatory and sterility standards. AMCR is positioned directly in that lane.

This niche isn’t loud... but it’s durable. It’s the kind of sideline specialization that often gets mispriced until the market is forced to acknowledge its importance.

So, I made a rare adjustment. Instead of matching Citi’s 8% revision, I recalibrated my next purchase threshold to 41.36 - - -, a modest, disciplined increase that respected the new information without surrendering the integrity of my A.I.S... The market advanced, the Stock was still down, and the new target was triggered. I added to my position at a price aligned with long‑term value rather than analyst excitement.

AMCR remains one of the few packaging companies I’m willing to hold for qualified dividends over many years. The yield pushed past 6.1% (Qualified). Yesterday’s move wasn’t a break from discipline... it was an evolution of it. I believe, trust, and appreciate the asset.

HPE’s Networking‑Driven Outlook... A Concise Summary

Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s latest report highlights a clear shift in where their growth is coming from. HPE beat expectations and raised its fiscal 2026 EPS outlook, driven largely by accelerating demand for high‑performance networking infrastructure.

Their AI and networking backlog has now surpassed $5 billion, reflecting enterprise demand for systems capable of supporting AI workloads, secure data movement, and low‑latency edge‑to‑cloud environments. As organizations adopt AI at scale, networking, not ,"compute," is becoming the bottleneck. HPE is leaning directly into that shift.

The company expects Q2 revenue between $9.6B and $10B, above analyst estimates, with higher‑margin networking products leading the way. This marks a continued transition from legacy server dependence toward a data‑centric, hybrid‑cloud, networking‑first identity.

In short... HPE is positioning itself for a future where intelligent data movement matters as much as processing power. The market noticed. HPE is still outside of my range but it's on my Watchlist!

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Disclaimer: The content in this post reflects my personal opinions, trading activity, and ongoing investment research. It is not financial advice, investment guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I actively own and continue to purchase shares of the companies mentioned, including AMCR and HPE, and my positions may change at any time without notice.

All information is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Market conditions, price targets, and personal strategies discussed here represent my perspective at the time of writing and may not be suitable for others.

HPE: Reports Tomorrow - Realignment, Current Thoughts, and Why I’m Anxious on the Sideline

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) continues to be one of the more complicated technology names to evaluate... especially after its multi‑year realignment and the lingering confusion that still surrounds the HPQ/HPE split. As someone who exited HPE across all accounts on 6/30/2025, I’ve been watching from a distance, listening, reading, and trying to understand whether the company’s newly aligned business model justifies re‑entry.

E*TRADE’s snapshot currently shows HPE posting a –0.04 loss, and while that number alone doesn’t tell the whole story, it does endorse my mixed sentiment surrounding the company. I have noticed, however, YouTube analysts and tech reviewers seem far more optimistic about HPE’s hardware and enterprise solutions. That contrast... market caution vs. product enthusiasm... is exactly why I’m approaching this with patience.

Remembering the HPQ / HPE Split

When conversations erupted with others on HP, few people (I want to say none) knew they split. It happened back in 2015 (11 Years Ago), Hewlett‑Packard separated into two independent companies:

• HP Inc. (HPQ)... PCs, printers, consumer hardware, and the dividend‑friendly, cash‑flow‑heavy business most retail investors gravitate toward.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)... Servers, networking, hybrid cloud, enterprise storage, and large‑scale IT infrastructure.

HPQ kept the legacy printing and PC business, which still produces consistent earnings and a strong dividend... one reason I continue to lean toward HPQ. HPE, on the other hand, became the enterprise‑focused, forward‑looking technology provider with ambitions in AI, networking, and cloud infrastructure. Let's be clear, I am a Hawk for Cloud, AI, and Networking... in that order.

AI; forget it. It's the destination computers have brought since IBM fired it up. You and I, we are quite stupid (Regardless of our IQ) when we are put in the ring with AI. Our Tesla even infamously recently sung a lullaby to a Baby that was fussy. Ironically, it was able to play one that eased the baby and put it to sleep. Something my Wife has been very happy to share with a smile!

Cloud; the ability to pass between multiple devices and see the same data, files, and notes. In addition, the ability for multiple people to collaborate from various devices. It's introducing a body with a brain to Computing.

Networking; it brings it all together. It opens up the world. We once walked around without Cell Phone/Micro Computers and left our important information at home on a Hard-Drive. No more, thanks to Networking, the World is a small place... Space, is smaller :). 

What HPE Is Trying to Become

HPE has been aggressively realigning its business segments. According to its 2025 Securities Analyst Meeting, the company is emphasizing:

• Strengthened networking capabilities as a major contributor to future financial performance
• A strategy to capture AI infrastructure growth, especially among enterprise and sovereign customers
• Expansion of its hybrid cloud leadership
• A 10% dividend increase for fiscal 2026 and an additional $3 billion share repurchase authorization

HPE also announced a new Cloud & AI segment and a $3B buyback program as part of its realignment, along with $240M in integration costs tied to restructuring efforts.

On paper, this is the kind of pivot that should excite long‑term tech investors. But the market’s reaction has been mixed.

What Analysts Are Expecting

HPE’s fiscal 2026 guidance has been described as cautiously optimistic. The company reaffirmed long‑term growth potential but signaled near‑term softness, which disappointed investors. The guidance included:

• 5–10% revenue growth
• $2.20–$2.40 EPS, below the previously expected $2.41
• A stock drop of roughly 10% following the announcement

Analysts remain divided:

• Citigroup sees value in HPE’s $1.6B AI server business.
• Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to $14, citing competitive and regulatory risks.

This split in opinion mirrors my own hesitation.

My Personal Sentiment... Avoid for Now, But Listening Closely

I exited HPE in June 2025 because the business felt directionally unclear. Even today, with the realignment more defined, I still see more questions than answers. My Standard Deviation Trading Platform now calculates HPE as a Strong Buy at $17.10 and an Avoid above $18.35. With the stock trading above my comfort zone and the company still in transition, I’m staying out unless tomorrow’s 3/9/2026 conference call provides clarity.

Meanwhile, HPQ continues to offer:

• A favorable dividend yield
• Consistent earnings
• Products I understand and use
• A business model that aligns with my income‑focused strategy

Tech is absolutely the future... just like electric vehicles... (Some people really like stopping for gas? ).. but not every tech company is positioned equally. HPE may have significant potential, especially in AI and networking, but potential alone isn’t enough for me to re‑enter until the numbers and the narrative align.

And speaking of the future... let me add one of my favorite parts of owning an EV. I haven’t stopped at a gas station in over a decade. I wake up, walk outside, and my car is sitting there at 100 percent... every single morning... 

There’s a certain comedy in watching folks defend the ritual of standing outside in the cold, squeezing a handle, and paying whatever price the sign says that day... while I’m rolling out of the driveway full every morning without thinking about it. Sarcasm aside, that’s the kind of simplicity I look for in tech companies too... clear value, low friction, and a future‑proof direction.

Tomorrow’s call will tell me whether HPE is truly turning a corner or simply reshuffling the same pieces.

HPE Investor Relations: Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Webcast at 17:00 EDT: Early Registration | Q1 2026 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Earnings Conference Call

Disclaimer

This blog post reflects my personal opinions and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

Efficiency or Signal? Decoding Block’s AI-Driven Restructuring

In a significant move for the fintech sector, Block Inc. (Ticker: XYZ) has announced a major workforce reduction, cutting 4,000 jobs to streamline operations. Square and Cash App CEO Jack Dorsey is leaning heavily into the future of automation, stating that AI will now represent the equivalent of roughly 40% of their workforce capabilities.

As an investor, I view major announcements like this through two lenses: operational efficiency and market sentiment.

The P/E Ratio: A Double-Edged Indicator

The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is one of my favorite up-front measurements. I see it as both a valuation metric and a sentiment indicator—it shows exactly how the market views a company's future and where they believe it is headed.

Looking at the current sector grouping (based on E*Trade quotes):

• GPN (Global Payments): 16.54

• XYZ (Block Inc): 27.42

• COIN (Coinbase): 41.51

• FIS (Fidelity National): 70.32

Before this news, Block was competitively priced within its peer group. However, the market’s reaction to the AI-pivot and staff cuts has been swift; as of premarket today, the stock is up 16%.

Sentiment and the Crypto Divide

While COIN currently enjoys high market sentiment, it remains tethered to the volatility of the crypto market. I’ve personally never jumped on the crypto wagon. In the debate between Digital Currency and Precious Metals, I lean toward the tangible. I need an asset I can see and touch; to me, crypto remains rooted in speculation.

The Numbers: Comparative Strengths

When we dive into the financials, Block’s conservative approach to growth stands out:

• Financial Strength: With a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.35x, Block is less aggressive with debt than 66% of its peers in the Business Support Services industry. This typically results in less earnings volatility compared to its more leveraged competitors like GPN (0.95x) or FIS (0.94x).

• Operational Efficiency: Block maintains a Current Ratio of 2.18x and a Quick Ratio of 2.17x, showing strong short-term liquidity.

• Growth: Its EPS growth rate is holding steady on par with industry peers, though it doesn't currently offer the dividends found in "legacy" fintechs like FIS (3.45% yield) or GPN (1.28% yield).

The Strategy: Standard Deviation and Income

These stocks, excluding FIS, currently fall into my Standard Deviation strategy. There is a modest level of uncertainty here... especially with Block’s radical shift toward an AI-centric workforce.

For those looking for "Augmented Income," the look would be FIS, otherwise the dividends in this sector are currently not attractive enough to be an Income Driver. Instead, the play here is about institutional ownership (Block sits at a high 78.97%) and whether Dorsey’s "leaner" machine can turn that 16% premarket pop into sustained long-term growth.

Disclaimer

The information provided in this post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. The author is sharing personal strategies and opinions based on specific market data which may change without notice. Always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author, Michael Medeiros, may or may not hold positions in the tickers mentioned.

Why I’m Bullish on Tech and What I Bought Today

Technology is the engine of long‑term productivity and social improvement. I believe AI, electrification, and software‑driven services are reshaping costs, convenience, and opportunity across the economy. Today I added to my position in NVIDIA (NVDA) as the price dipped — a conviction buy based on the company’s structural role in AI compute and my view that demand for specialized chips will remain elevated even as markets gyrate. Recent investor skepticism after a strong quarter showed me how quickly sentiment can swing, but the underlying demand picture for AI compute remains powerful, in my opinion.

My NVDA trades this month and why I trade the way I do

My Medeiros Alpha Strategy (MAS) uses a Market‑Adaptive Pricing and Shaping formula geared towards frequent trading. It lets market action nominate candidates rather than relying solely on my own bottom‑up research. These candidates, I buy and sell around price action and liquidity, accepting that I’ll sometimes regret not scalping intraday moves. As an example, the pre‑market action I saw today that might have allowed a larger short‑term gain by selling. My recent NVDA activity this year reflects that approach: multiple buys and sells as the market set opportunities for buying and trimming.

That said, my conviction is strategic: NVIDIA’s roadmap (including new Rubin‑era platforms and continued investment in inference and training efficiency) gives it a durable advantage in the AI stack even as competitors and cloud providers explore alternatives.

Additionally I’m buying payroll processors alongside AI

Payroll processors like PAYX sit on the opposite fulcrum from AI chip makers. If AI accelerates automation and changes job composition, payroll and HR services remain central to how businesses manage labor, compliance, and benefits. That creates recurring revenue, high switching costs, and resilience in many economic scenarios. I’ve been dollar‑cost averaging into PAYX on pullbacks and using a laddered approach to build exposure over time. I am repulsed by the recent activities in my State. I once was proud to be a resident. This State is fueling a new-age of slavery with Sanctuary Policies. Probably not as outright as Minneapolis, but certainly significant. The Federal Government is taking steps to make imports less attractive and strip these policies of hiding illegals under the blanket of, Helping People, rather than exploiting cheap labor. It's amazing how many people are behind this movement, protesting ICE. I feel like I'm living in 1860's 160 years later. People like cheap stuff and cheap entertainment. Enough said on that matter, but I expect a big shift from above soon.

Restaurants, local policy, and the labor angle

Restaurants and other service businesses face a complex mix of labor supply, local policy, and consumer demand. Consolidation and operational pressure (for example, chains combining brands to capture scale) are responses to those pressures. My DIN trades reflect a view that select restaurant operators can be value plays when management executes on cost control and brand strategy.

Electrification: a personal testimony

I’ve driven an EV for 13 years. The experience... far fewer mechanical failures, lower maintenance, and the ability to charge at home (often offset by rooftop solar)... convinced me that electrification is a systemic cost and convenience shift. It's a Peter Lynch moment, invest where you have good experiences. Regenerative braking and simpler drivetrains materially reduce ownership friction. That conviction informs my broader portfolio tilt toward companies that benefit from electrification and distributed energy.

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Macro threads tying these positions together

• AI compute demand -- drives capital spending on chips and data‑center infrastructure; NVDA is a primary beneficiary.
• Labor and services resilience -- payroll processors and HR tech capture recurring revenue even as job composition shifts.
• Tariffs and reshoring -- rising trade frictions can raise input costs but also incentivize local job growth in certain sectors, which supports payroll and services demand.
• Income diversification -- I’m adding 30‑year Treasuries as part of an Augmented Income Strategy to capture attractive yields and reduce portfolio volatility around equity positions.

Portfolio snapshot (selected recent trades, Tickers mentioned)

NVDA: multiple buys and sells in Feb and Jan as MAS signaled entries and exits. Modest gains in swings.

PAYX: laddered buys across declines; occasional sells to rebalance. Expecting a long-term turnaround especially as Federal Government drops the long-hammer on the exploitation of migrants (The modern Slavery Epidemic... As I see it).

DIN: tactical buys and sells around operational news and consolidation themes. They are reshaping and combining brands (Applebee's and IHOP). They recently announced the closure of under-performing Restaurants.

Risks and what I’m watching

• Sentiment volatility --- AI narratives can swing quickly; strong earnings don’t always prevent sharp pullbacks.
• Competition and supply --- cloud providers and chip rivals could erode margins or force faster reinvestment cycles. IndexBox
• Policy and labor --- trade policy, immigration, and enforcement affect labor supply, costs, and the social tradeoffs I care about.
• Execution risk --- companies must convert technological advantage into durable economics; roadmaps matter.

Takeaways

Tech is not a single bet, it’s a set of structural shifts. AI compute, payroll and HR services, electrification, and energy are interconnected themes that can reinforce each other. I’m building exposure across those themes with a mix of conviction buys (NVDA), defensive recurring‑revenue names (PAYX), selective consumer plays (DIN), and fixed‑income ladders to manage risk.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or an offer to provide investment advisory services. I am sharing my personal views and trade history; you should consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

My Augmented Income Strategy an Overview of Today

My Augmented Income Strategy (AIS) is an income‑first screening layer that seeks and identifies securities whose dividend yields exceed my chosen high‑yield savings account (HYSA), the benchmark for inclusion. AIS is intentionally simple at the first pass: it flags names that pay materially more than the HYSA so I can prioritize further fundamental review, tax treatment considerations, and liquidity metrics (Position sizing).

By concentrating on securities within the AIS, that yield meaningfully above my HYSA, I apply a disciplined buy‑hold‑acquire‑more posture, AIS aims to generate steady cash flow while selectively adding to positions when market stress creates attractive entry yields.

Qualified vs Non‑Qualified Dividends — Tax Treatment

A critical distinction for income investors is whether dividends are qualified or non‑qualified. Qualified dividends are taxed at long‑term capital gains rates and generally require meeting holding‑period rules and originating from qualifying corporations. Non‑qualified dividends are taxed at ordinary income rates and commonly include distributions from REITs, many ETFs, and certain foreign payers. The AIS bucket contains both types of distributions, so after‑tax income will vary across holdings and account wrappers. Tax planning and account placement (taxable vs tax‑advantaged) should be part of any decision to hold or add to these positions.

Acquiring shares can/should be... systematic: an investor might add on a percentage decline in price, by using a volatility‑aware trigger such as a 30‑day standard deviation band (I use these), or follow a planned dollar‑cost averaging approach through broker tools like E‑Trade’s Automatic Investment Plans (AIP). AIPs might let investors allocate fixed amounts on a schedule, often buying fractional or partial shares where supported, which helps translate a target dollar commitment into incremental ownership aligned with the Investors goals. Be aware platforms typically impose minimums and limit which securities are eligible for AIP or fractional purchases, so check the broker’s rules and match the method to your risk tolerance, tax situation, and time horizon.

How I Use AIS; My Process Notes

• First‑layer screen: AIS begins with a yield screen versus my HYSA. This is a starting point, not a final buy signal.
• Buy‑hold‑acquire more: My default posture, in this strategy and this strategy alone, is to hold for income and add on meaningful weakness when fundamentals permit. I'm not likely selling my shares, once acquired, EVER. These are a buy and hold Investment in my IRA's and Personal/Joint Accounts.
• Discounts and distress: Some tickers trade at discounted prices that inflate yield because the business is under stress; higher yield can compensate for risk but is not a substitute for due diligence. I look carefully at higher yields to the competition in the Sector.
• Tax planning: Because AIS mixes qualified and non‑qualified dividends, consider account placement and maybe consult a tax advisor about holding periods and tax efficiency. Impact varies by the individual and account type. 

My Current AIS Candidates: Currently Trading Below 30‑ and 90‑Day Averages

These tickers currently trigger three of my measures. They are trading below both the 30‑ and 90‑day averages and yield more than my HYSA, the Income Benchmark. The list may present, to me, add‑on opportunities after further and deeper analysis supports their Purchases.

Ticker	Yield (%)
AMH	4.52
BKLN	6.34
CPB	5.77
ETD	6.75
FTF	12.12
GIS	5.42
HPQ	6.51
OBDC	12.71
PAYX	4.86
PRU	5.59
QSR	3.81
QYLD	12.18
SCM	13.17
TFC	4.19
TROW	5.54
WEN	7.27

My other AIS Candidates: Now Trading Above 30‑ and 90‑Day Averages

These names also yield more than my HYSA and are trading above their short‑ and medium‑term averages, indicating recent strength. They are more likely, from my experiences, to become core income holdings rather than immediate add targets because I feel/sense a turnaround.

Ticker	Yield (%)
AMCR	5.15
AVA	4.63
BGS	14.34
BMY	4.08
CAG	7.33
CALM	3.41
CCI	3.96
CMCSA	4.20
CUBE	5.34
CVX	3.84
D	4.21
EIX	4.70
EPD	6.10
EQR	4.36
EXR	3.69
F	4.23
HRL	4.59
KHC	6.48
KMI	3.60
LQD	4.69
MO	6.17
MSM	3.71
NHI	4.13
NNN	5.42
NWE	3.82
OHI	5.68

Execution, Risk Management, and Notes

• AIS is a first‑layer screen only; further fundamental and balance‑sheet analysis is required before increasing exposure.
• High yields caused by price declines can be attractive entry points but often signal elevated business risk.
• I often place high‑tax distributions in tax‑advantaged accounts when appropriate.
• Position size to reflect conviction, diversification needs, and downside risk.

How I process these two sides of, "Averages"

I think opportunity exists on both sides of the averages. Equities trading below their short‑ and medium‑term averages often signal that the market has “cold feet.” Other investors may be hesitant, there could be company‑specific concerns, or broader macro risks might be getting priced in. In contrast, those trading above their averages tend to show relative favoritism and are being sought by other investors and institutions, which can reflect momentum, improving fundamentals, or simply stronger demand. This is my opinion and not meant to be persuasive. There are also names that sit somewhere in the middle... not deeply discounted... not rallying... steady enough at producing income to keep accumulating. Below average, there may be a turnaround story developing, while above average is often where I like to jump onboard the ship and ride the strength.

Disclaimer: This post documents my personal Augmented Income Strategy and the current AIS candidates or holdings as a record of my process. It is educational and informational only and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. Always perform your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

Building Better Trading Strategies: Why Every Trader Needs Clear Buckets

For years, I’ve believed that successful trading doesn’t begin with stock picks — it begins with structure. Strategies, rules, and repeatable processes are what separate disciplined traders from emotional ones. And if there’s one lesson that stuck with me from a journalism course I took 31 years ago, it’s this: your thesis belongs at the end of the first or second paragraph.

So here it is: successful trading starts with clearly defined strategy buckets — and the discipline to stay inside them.

From Day Trading to Structured Systems

Before I built the system I use today, I spent time talking with a day trader. His approach, back then, was simple, almost mechanical, and made me understand the importance of, "Strategy". He would buy the stock that had the largest decline the previous trading day. No watchlist, no scanning tools, no complicated indicators and... it wasn't an investment. E*TRADE even offered an option to place a sell order that would execute at the close as a market order, which made the strategy workable even with a 9–5 job. It wasn’t elegant, but it was systematic. That alone made it surprisingly effective.

As I progressed, and time went on, I had more flexibility to watch the market intraday and my current strategies evolved. I developed rules that use a, "Multi‑Bucket," framework that reflects different goals, different market conditions, and different types of assets. Today, every trade or investment I place falls into one of four buckets.

The Four Buckets That Drive My Trading Today

Each bucket has a purpose. Each bucket has rules. And each bucket keeps me from drifting into emotional or inconsistent decision‑making. They do often, require a lot of patience.

1. Bond & CD Bucket (The Stability Engine)

This is my largest bucket, by design and intention. It’s the foundation of the entire system. I buy long‑term Treasuries when they’re available, either through TreasuryDirect.gov or through the secondary market via my broker. For CDs, the broker almost always offers the best access and variety. I prefer non‑callable bonds that yield more than my High‑Yield Savings Account (HYSA), and I typically check the offerings on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday mornings to stay ahead of new issuances and rate changes.

This bucket is about stability, predictable income, and capital preservation. It’s not the most exciting part of the portfolio but it’s the part that lets the other buckets take calculated risks without destabilizing the whole system.

2. Augmented Income Strategy (AIS) - Largely a Buy and Hold Bucket

This bucket focuses on dividend income. I seek income streams that are predictable, reliable, and ideally superior to what a HYSA offers. These are stocks I rarely sell. I accumulate them, reinvest dividends, and occasionally repurchase after ex‑dividend dates when I see price-patterns that decline ex-div. AIS is slow, steady, and grounded in the belief that income compounds quietly in the background while the rest of the portfolio moves around it.

3. Medeiros Alpha Strategy (MAS)

This is my momentum bucket... and... consistently my most profitable. MAS focuses on the top 20 companies in the S&P 500 by market cap, the giants with liquidity, stability, and strong institutional support. Here, I’m trading for profit, not yield. I buy strength, trim into strength, and treat these positions as short‑ to medium‑term opportunities. It’s disciplined momentum, not speculation. I initially buy small portions, dollar cost average on pull-backs, and have sell targets using Fibonacci logic in the formula.

4. Swing Trade Strategy (STS)

This bucket is built on mean reversion. I look for stocks trading below their 45‑day averages... stocks that appear undervalued relative to their recent behavior. These are shorter‑term trades where I’m buying weakness and selling when price normalizes. It’s a strategy that rewards patience and punishes impulsiveness, and it remains one of the most consistently effective approaches I’ve used.

Why Buckets Matter

Buckets prevent strategy drift. They keep a dividend stock from becoming a momentum trade. They stop a swing trade from turning into an accidental long‑term hold. They give every trade a purpose and every position a home. Most importantly, they create clarity... and clarity is the antidote to emotional decision‑making.

Whether you’re a new trader or someone returning to the markets after time away, defining your buckets is one of the most valuable steps you can take. It’s not about complexity. It’s about consistency.

Looking Ahead

I’ll continue refining these buckets as markets evolve, but the framework itself has proven durable — largely because it’s supported by a spreadsheet system that keeps my decisions grounded in data rather than emotion. Every bucket has its own tab, its own logic, and its own tuple targets for buying the next iteration... and selling... closing the current iteration. Those tuples act as anchors: clear price levels that tell me when to add, when to trim, and when to wait.

GoogleFinance has become one of the most powerful tools in that process. With a little time and patience, it’s possible to build a spreadsheet that updates prices in real time, calculates moving averages, flags opportunities, and filters positions based on strategy rules. My filter section (Action Sheet) highlights what’s actionable — not what’s interesting — and that distinction alone has saved me from countless impulsive trades.

This combination of structure and automation gives me something I never had as a younger trader: clarity. It’s structure without rigidity, discipline without paralysis, and a way to trade with intention rather than reaction. If you’re building or rebuilding your own trading approach, consider starting with buckets of your own — and a spreadsheet that keeps you honest.

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Support the Work

If you enjoy these posts and want to support the research, writing, and time that goes into them, I’ve added a few optional ways to contribute. There’s never any obligation — but every bit helps keep the content flowing.

• PayPal: paypal.me/MikeMedeiros691
• Venmo: @MedMichael-138
• Cash App: $MikeMed125

Thank you for supporting independent writing and analysis — it genuinely makes a difference.

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Disclaimer

This blog reflects my personal trading strategies and experiences. It is not financial advice, investment guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

Two Sides to Every Sale: Thoughts on Blue Owl’s Loan Announcement and the Market Reaction

Yesterday’s sharp sell-off in Blue Owl and several other BDC-related names caught a lot of people off guard. The catalyst was simple:
Blue Owl announced that they sold a portion of their loans slightly below par.

That single disclosure triggered a wave of fear — not just in their stock, but across the entire sector. Headlines focused on “discounted loan sales,” and investors reacted as if this were a sign of systemic weakness.

But after thinking about it for nearly a full day, I’ve come to a different conclusion — one rooted in a basic truth that too many people forget:

Every Sale Has Two Sides

When something is sold below par, the instinct is to assume distress. But that’s only one possible explanation. In markets — whether we’re talking about stocks, bonds, loans, or even merchandise — professionals make decisions based on expectations. That’s the real root of this thesis.

My Own Recent Trades Prove the Point

Over the past few months, I’ve been buying U.S. Treasuries — both 20‑year and 30‑year — below par. Some of these purchases were around 97% of face value.

Now, why would someone sell me long‑dated Treasuries at a discount?

Most people jump to the obvious answer:
“They needed capital.”

Sure, that’s possible. Liquidity needs, debt payments, or dividend obligations can force sales.

But experienced investors know there’s another layer:
strategy.

The seller may have believed interest rates were going to rise. They may have wanted to rotate into shorter duration. They may have been repositioning ahead of a macro shift. Or they may have simply preferred to lock in gains elsewhere.

Meanwhile, my strategic view is the opposite. With COVID behind us, debt levels rising, and the Fed eventually needing to ease, I see a path where long‑term rates drift lower. If that happens, the value of the Treasuries I bought at a discount will rise.

Same sale.
Two sides.
Two different expectations.

Applying That Lens to Blue Owl

Blue Owl sold loans slightly below par. That’s the fact.
But the interpretation is where investors split.

The market assumed:
“Discounted sale = trouble.”

But what if the sale was strategic?

• What if Blue Owl expects a better loan environment ahead?
• What if they wanted to clean up older positions to make room for higher‑quality originations?
• What if they see a shift in the technology sector — where these loans were concentrated — and want to reposition before AI‑driven volatility reshapes valuations?

Remember:
A sale below par does not automatically mean distress.
It can just as easily mean opportunity, rotation, or forward‑looking strategy.

And yes — the fact that these loans were in the technology sector added fuel to the fire. AI is reshaping industries, scaring some investors, and creating uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty.

But uncertainty does not equal weakness.

My Position on BDCs Right Now

I’m not trimming my BDC holdings. I still believe tariffs are necessary to restore balance to American industry. For decades, off‑balance trade conditions pushed companies overseas — Apple’s move to China before the iPhone era is still one of the clearest examples.

Tariffs help level the playing field. A stronger domestic manufacturing base supports stronger domestic lending. And BDCs thrive when American businesses thrive.

That said, I’ve placed my BDC investments on a 30‑day hold. Not because I’m bearish — but because I want to see what new information surfaces. Strategic moves often reveal their purpose with time.

If Blue Owl believes the loan environment is improving, this sale could actually be a positive signal, not a negative one.

Final Thought

Markets often react emotionally to headlines. But investing requires stepping back and remembering the simple truth:

Every sale has two sides and the seller’s reason is not always the one the market assumes.

I also believe the market tests our intelligence and discipline constantly. It’s a strategic ecosystem, not a scoreboard. When one participant gains, another often gives something up... and those dynamics force us to think beyond the surface.

These are my thoughts. Avoiding emotional, reaction‑driven decisions is very important. The hardest part of investing isn’t the math… it’s resisting the instinct to respond quickly, rather than thoughtfully. When we stay grounded, patient, and analytical, we give ourselves the best chance to understand what’s really happening beneath the headlines.

Disclosure

This post reflects my personal opinions and interpretations. It is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.