Technology is the engine of long‑term productivity and social improvement. I believe AI, electrification, and software‑driven services are reshaping costs, convenience, and opportunity across the economy. Today I added to my position in NVIDIA (NVDA) as the price dipped — a conviction buy based on the company’s structural role in AI compute and my view that demand for specialized chips will remain elevated even as markets gyrate. Recent investor skepticism after a strong quarter showed me how quickly sentiment can swing, but the underlying demand picture for AI compute remains powerful, in my opinion.
My NVDA trades this month and why I trade the way I do
My Medeiros Alpha Strategy (MAS) uses a Market‑Adaptive Pricing and Shaping formula geared towards frequent trading. It lets market action nominate candidates rather than relying solely on my own bottom‑up research. These candidates, I buy and sell around price action and liquidity, accepting that I’ll sometimes regret not scalping intraday moves. As an example, the pre‑market action I saw today that might have allowed a larger short‑term gain by selling. My recent NVDA activity this year reflects that approach: multiple buys and sells as the market set opportunities for buying and trimming.
That said, my conviction is strategic: NVIDIA’s roadmap (including new Rubin‑era platforms and continued investment in inference and training efficiency) gives it a durable advantage in the AI stack even as competitors and cloud providers explore alternatives.
Additionally I’m buying payroll processors alongside AI
Payroll processors like PAYX sit on the opposite fulcrum from AI chip makers. If AI accelerates automation and changes job composition, payroll and HR services remain central to how businesses manage labor, compliance, and benefits. That creates recurring revenue, high switching costs, and resilience in many economic scenarios. I’ve been dollar‑cost averaging into PAYX on pullbacks and using a laddered approach to build exposure over time. I am repulsed by the recent activities in my State. I once was proud to be a resident. This State is fueling a new-age of slavery with Sanctuary Policies. Probably not as outright as Minneapolis, but certainly significant. The Federal Government is taking steps to make imports less attractive and strip these policies of hiding illegals under the blanket of, Helping People, rather than exploiting cheap labor. It's amazing how many people are behind this movement, protesting ICE. I feel like I'm living in 1860's 160 years later. People like cheap stuff and cheap entertainment. Enough said on that matter, but I expect a big shift from above soon.
Restaurants, local policy, and the labor angle
Restaurants and other service businesses face a complex mix of labor supply, local policy, and consumer demand. Consolidation and operational pressure (for example, chains combining brands to capture scale) are responses to those pressures. My DIN trades reflect a view that select restaurant operators can be value plays when management executes on cost control and brand strategy.
Electrification: a personal testimony
I’ve driven an EV for 13 years. The experience... far fewer mechanical failures, lower maintenance, and the ability to charge at home (often offset by rooftop solar)... convinced me that electrification is a systemic cost and convenience shift. It's a Peter Lynch moment, invest where you have good experiences. Regenerative braking and simpler drivetrains materially reduce ownership friction. That conviction informs my broader portfolio tilt toward companies that benefit from electrification and distributed energy.
Macro threads tying these positions together
- AI compute demand -- drives capital spending on chips and data‑center infrastructure; NVDA is a primary beneficiary.
- Labor and services resilience -- payroll processors and HR tech capture recurring revenue even as job composition shifts.
- Tariffs and reshoring -- rising trade frictions can raise input costs but also incentivize local job growth in certain sectors, which supports payroll and services demand.
- Income diversification -- I’m adding 30‑year Treasuries as part of an Augmented Income Strategy to capture attractive yields and reduce portfolio volatility around equity positions.
Portfolio snapshot (selected recent trades, Tickers mentioned)
NVDA: multiple buys and sells in Feb and Jan as MAS signaled entries and exits. Modest gains in swings.
PAYX: laddered buys across declines; occasional sells to rebalance. Expecting a long-term turnaround especially as Federal Government drops the long-hammer on the exploitation of migrants (The modern Slavery Epidemic... As I see it).
DIN: tactical buys and sells around operational news and consolidation themes. They are reshaping and combining brands (Applebee's and IHOP). They recently announced the closure of under-performing Restaurants.
Risks and what I’m watching
- Sentiment volatility --- AI narratives can swing quickly; strong earnings don’t always prevent sharp pullbacks.
- Competition and supply --- cloud providers and chip rivals could erode margins or force faster reinvestment cycles. IndexBox
- Policy and labor --- trade policy, immigration, and enforcement affect labor supply, costs, and the social tradeoffs I care about.
- Execution risk --- companies must convert technological advantage into durable economics; roadmaps matter.
Takeaways
Tech is not a single bet, it’s a set of structural shifts. AI compute, payroll and HR services, electrification, and energy are interconnected themes that can reinforce each other. I’m building exposure across those themes with a mix of conviction buys (NVDA), defensive recurring‑revenue names (PAYX), selective consumer plays (DIN), and fixed‑income ladders to manage risk.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or an offer to provide investment advisory services. I am sharing my personal views and trade history; you should consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
