On September 9, 2024, Big Lots (BIG) officially filed for bankruptcy, marking the end of a challenging journey for the company and its shareholders. Like many others, I initially saw Big Lots as a value opportunity in 2023, largely because of its attempts to revitalize its business, including the development of an upgraded distribution center. This asset was supposed to play a pivotal role in its turnaround strategy, but the anticipated results never materialized. Instead of holding on in hopes of a reversion, I began to see cracks in the foundation, reinforcing my belief in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, a theory pioneered by Eugene Fama, which posits that asset prices reflect all available information and therefore accurately represent a company’s value at any given time.
The Rise and Fall of Big Lots
At first glance, Big Lots seemed like a promising investment. The company was taking steps to modernize its operations and infrastructure, which seemed poised to improve profitability. Many investors, including myself, were drawn to this turnaround story. However, as time passed, it became clear that the company was struggling to adapt to rapidly changing consumer behavior, especially as e-commerce and at-home delivery options, such as those offered by DoorDash, began to dominate the retail space. Despite having a physical distribution advantage, Big Lots was losing ground in the race to meet consumers where they were: online and at home.
Swing Trading and Market Realities
In 2023, I attempted several swing trades with Big Lots, aiming to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations. Early on, I saw some success, which added a bit of excitement to my investment journey. However, as the stock continued to show weakness, it became clear that the major investors were exiting their positions. Big Lots’ stock price tumbled further, and my larger swing trade—an attempt to exploit a small reversion—didn’t pan out. Realizing the company was on an irreversible decline, I was fortunate to have exited the position before the bankruptcy news hit.
Retail’s Changing Landscape
Retail is rapidly evolving, with customers increasingly favoring the convenience of e-commerce and home delivery services over traditional in-store experiences. Big Lots struggled to compete in this new environment, facing stiff competition from Walmart, Amazon, and other retail giants that had fully embraced digital transformation. Analysts cited weak consumer demand, high debt levels, and the company’s inability to effectively compete online as the primary reasons for its decline. Additionally, supply chain challenges and rising costs associated with operating physical stores further eroded profitability, leaving Big Lots in a precarious financial position.
Analyst Warnings and Big Investor Exit
Analysts had been warning for some time that Big Lots was failing to execute its turnaround strategy. According to various reports, many large investors began pulling their money out of the stock in late 2023 and early 2024. The company was also facing liquidity issues as it struggled to generate consistent cash flow amid declining foot traffic and poor financial performance. In the months leading up to its bankruptcy filing, several analysts downgraded their ratings on the stock, citing over-leveraged debt, deteriorating margins, and increasing competitive pressures as key reasons for their pessimism.
A Lesson Learned
Looking back, my decision to sell Big Lots before the worst of the decline occurred was a fortunate one. The retail industry is changing, and companies that fail to adapt quickly enough will continue to face similar fates. In the end, the efficient market hypothesis proved correct: as soon as the cracks in Big Lots' strategy became apparent, the market reflected its true value. While I initially believed in the company’s potential for a turnaround, the data told a different story, and the eventual bankruptcy serves as a reminder that the retail landscape is unforgiving for those who can’t keep up.
In today’s world, retailers must stay ahead of the curve by offering seamless online experiences, innovative delivery solutions, and the kind of customer convenience that can only be found in the digital space. For Big Lots, the pivot came too late, and their failure to execute resulted in a collapse that many, including myself, could see coming.
