The Premise
In the world of options trading, traders often bet on directional moves based on probability and volatility. But what if you could apply a similar mindset — without actually buying an option (or paying a premium that makes you cry later)?
With the new MAS Strategy, I approach the top 10 U.S. S&P 500 companies using Standard Deviation (StDv) and moving averages as probability anchors. It's like options trading — only with fewer Greeks and more sleep.
Entry Signal: Below the Averages
To simulate the "undervalued premium" approach:
I filter for stocks trading below both the 30-day and 90-day moving averages.
These represent discounted entries, comparable to buying an option when implied volatility is low. I think of it as catching a high-quality stock on clearance — minus the shopper's remorse.
Why the 30-Day Standard Deviation?
The 30-day StDv captures near-term volatility, giving me:
A probability range for price action.
A target zone that is realistic within 1-2 weeks (because we all want results faster than a Prime delivery).
A simplified exit strategy based on reversion or continuation momentum.
Example:
AAPL is currently trading at $218.27, below its 30-day average of $229.63 and 90-day average of $235.02.
30D StDv = $13.32
A reversion trade would target $229.63 (the 30-day average), offering a ~$11 move.
A stronger mean reversion would hit $231.59 (218.27 + 1 StDv).
The Strategy Summary:
Identify stocks trading below 30 & 90 day averages.
Buy near recent 30-day lows when momentum begins to shift.
Target a move of 1x Standard Deviation or a return to the 30-day mean.
Exit automatically if the move completes — like an option would expire in-the-money, only this one doesn’t eat away your premium while you sleep.
My Current Top Picks From the S&P 500:
Here’s a filtered shortlist from my dataset (Top 10 by Market Cap, USA-based, and trading below both moving averages):
(Note: META, BRKB, TSM, AVGO all trade above one or both moving averages currently — they’re the cool kids at the top of the bell curve for now.)
| Ticker | Price | 30D Avg | 90D Avg | 30D StDv | Target (1 StDv Up) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 218.27 | 229.63 | 235.02 | 13.32 | 231.59 |
| MSFT | 391.26 | 392.42 | 412.15 | 9.51 | 400.77 |
| NVDA | 117.70 | 119.81 | 129.13 | 8.41 | 126.11 |
| AMZN | 196.21 | 203.39 | 219.52 | 8.81 | 205.02 |
| GOOG | 166.25 | 171.46 | 186.15 | 6.28 | 172.53 |
Closing Thoughts:
This approach marries the risk/reward mindset of options with direct stock ownership. I don’t need Greeks or expiration dates — just probability-informed entries and data-driven exits. It’s a discipline-first system that favors structure over speculation. And yes, it lets me trade with confidence while avoiding that awkward feeling of owning an option that expires worthless — like last year’s gym membership.
Disclaimer:
This post is for educational purposes only and should not be considered Investment Advice. Investing is risky and can cause a loss of capital. Always do your own due diligence — especially if your cat is sitting on your keyboard while you're making trades.
