Earnings Season Heats Up: Tesla's Slide and Trading Opportunities

It's that time again – Earnings Season! The air is thick with anticipation, and today's docket is overflowing with reports. While many companies are vying for attention, one, in particular, has caught my eye: Tesla (TSLA). My wife an I recently became happy owners of Model 3!

The electric vehicle giant has seen a notable decline, sliding down the S&P 500 rankings to number 11, just a hair ahead of the retail behemoth, Walmart (WMT). From my vantage point, both of these companies currently sit at what I consider a less-than-ideal entry point, with a significant amount of future optimism already baked into their prices.

This kind of scenario, where high expectations meet potential earnings realities, often creates fertile ground for trading. Large financial institutions frequently capitalize on the influx of capital, including those seemingly endless retirement contributions from the average investor. The burning questions, of course, are: where should the profit targets be set, and when will this trading window close?

My personal watchlist, my top 20, is brimming with potential trading candidates during this volatile period. Beyond individual companies, a broader economic shift is also on my radar. The long-suffering industrial and manufacturing sectors within the United States may finally be seeing a tailwind. The current administration appears intent on using financial incentives to encourage businesses to return to our shores.

This push for domestic production holds immense potential for development and job creation across a wide spectrum of industries. However, it presents a less rosy picture for international transportation companies. It's crucial to recognize that this is just the beginning, a mere scratching of the surface. It's highly unlikely that a single presidential term will fundamentally reshape decades of economic trends that have favored the exploitation of cheaper labor in other countries. The reality is, America faces significant challenges as our models of economic advantage have shifted away from domestic cheap labor.

Today's earnings calendar is packed, with a staggering 94 companies reporting. Here's a look at some of the key players releasing their numbers:

Before The Open

Company Actual Estimate Year Ago Earnings Yr/Yr Rev
Amphenol (APH) -- 0.52 0.8 --
AT&T (T) -- 0.53 0.55 --
Avery Dennison (AVY) -- 2.31 2.29 --
Boeing (BA) -- -1.28 -1.13 --
Boston Scientific (BSX) -- 0.67 0.56 --
Check Point Software (CHKP) -- 2.19 2.04 --
CME Group (CME) -- 2.79 2.5 --
First Hawaiian (FHB) -- 0.46 0.42 --
GATX (GATX) -- 2.09 2.01 --
GE Vernova (GEV) -- 0.37 -- --
General Dynamics (GD) -- 3.48 2.88 --
Healthcare Services (HCSG) -- 0.19 0.22 --
Lennox Int'l (LII) -- 3.25 3.47 --
Lithia Motors (LAD) -- 7.82 6.11 --
M/I Homes (MHO) -- 4.16 -- --
Masco (MAS) -- 0.91 0.93 --
Mr. Cooper Group (COOP) -- 2.97 2.73 --
New Oriental Ed (EDU) -- 0.74 0.63 --
NextEra Energy (NEE) -- 0.92 0.91 --
Norfolk Southern (NSC) -- 2.68 2.49 --
OFG Bancorp (OFG) -- 0.97 1.05 --
Old Dominion (ODFL) -- 1.14 1.34 --
Otis Worldwide (OTIS) -- 0.91 0.88 --
Philip Morris (PM) -- 1.61 1.5 --
Popular (BPOP) -- 2.18 1.43 --
PROG Holdings (PRG) -- 0.83 0.91 --
Prosperity Bancshares (PB) -- 1.35 1.18 --
Ryder System (R) -- 2.41 2.14 --
Stifel Financial (SF) -- 1.64 1.49 --
Taylor Morrison (TMHC) -- 1.9 1.75 --
TE Connectivity (TEL) -- 1.96 1.86 --
Teledyne Tech (TDY) -- 4.92 4.55 --
Thermo Fisher (TMO) -- 5.15 5.11 --
Travel + Leisure (TNL) -- 1.13 0.97 --
Vertiv (VRT) -- 0.62 0.43 --
Virtu Financial (VIRT) -- 1.15 0.76 --
Wabtec (WAB) -- 2.03 1.89 --
Watsco (WSO) -- 2.26 2.17 --

During Market Hours

No events scheduled on this date.

After The Close

Company Actual Estimate Year Ago Earnings Yr/Yr Rev
Alaska Air (ALK) -- -0.77 -0.92 --
ASGN Incorporated (ASGN) -- 0.95 1.16 --
Banc of California (BANC) -- 0.23 0.19 --
Bank of N.T. Butterfield (NTB) -- 1.09 1.17 --
CACI Intl (CACI) -- 5.58 5.74 --
Carlisle Cos (CSL) -- 3.42 3.72 --
Century Communities (CCS) -- 1.65 2.22 --
Chemed (CHE) -- 5.55 5.2 --
Chipotle (CMG) -- 0.28 13.37 --
Churchill Downs (CHDN) -- 1.07 1.13 --
Community Health (CYH) -- -0.1 -0.14 --
Core Labs (CLB) -- 0.15 0.19 --
Discover Financial (DFS) -- 3.31 1.1 --
EastGroup (EGP) -- 2.1 1.98 --
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) -- 0.6 0.66 --
Element Solutions (ESI) -- 0.33 0.34 --
Essential Properties (EPRT) -- 0.48 0.42 --
First American (FAF) -- 0.65 0.45 --
FirstEnergy (FE) -- 0.59 0.55 --
Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) -- 0.22 0.28 --
Graco (GGG) -- 0.67 0.65 --
IBM (IBM) -- 1.43 1.68 --
IMAX (IMAX) -- 0.13 0.15 --
Impinj (PI) -- 0.08 0.21 --
Kaiser Alum (KALU) -- 0.6 1.02 --
Knight-Swift (KNX) -- 0.24 0.12 --
Lam Research (LRCX) -- 17.79 -- --
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) -- 0.58 0.75 --
Matador Resources (MTDR) -- 1.78 1.71 --
MaxLinear (MXL) -- -0.05 -0.21 --
Meritage (MTH) -- 1.68 5.06 --
Moelis (MC) -- 0.59 0.22 --
Molina Healthcare (MOH) -- 5.96 5.73 --
Newmont Corporation (NEM) -- 0.91 0.55 --
O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) -- 9.87 9.2 --
Oceaneering Intl (OII) -- 0.31 0.14 --
Penumbra (PEN) -- 0.67 0.41 --
Plexus (PLXS) -- 1.54 0.94 --
QuantumScape (QS) -- -0.19 0.24 --
Raymond James (RJF) -- 2.44 2.31 --
Reliance, Inc. (RS) -- 3.74 5.3 --
RenaissanceRe (RNR) -- -0.85 12.18 --
ResMed (RMD) -- 2.36 2.13 --
RLI Corp (RLI) -- 0.85 1.89 --
Robert Half (RHI) -- 0.36 0.61 --
Rollins (ROL) -- 0.22 0.2 --
SEI Investments (SEIC) -- 1.14 0.99 --
Selective Insurance (SIGI) -- 1.86 1.33 --
ServiceNow (NOW) -- 3.84 3.41 --
Stewart Info (STC) -- 0.34 0.11 --
Texas Instruments (TXN) -- 1.1 1 --
Tyler Tech (TYL) -- 2.56 2.2 --
United Rentals (URI) -- 8.81 9.15 --
Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) -- -0.31 -0.26 --
Western Union (WU) -- 0.41 0.45 --
Whirlpool (WHR) -- 1.67 1.78 --

Following Verizon's (VZ) recent disappointing growth figures, all eyes will be on AT&T (T) today. These two communication giants have effectively countered Comcast's (CMCSA) dominance by integrating Broadcom (AVGO) chips into their cell phone infrastructure. This allows for the seamless handling of vast amounts of data, regardless of location, all while offering more affordable plans. While Verizon outlined some growth and expressed optimism, I anticipate AT&T will present stronger numbers, buoyed by their success in reclaiming customers and their continued fiber service presence on the West Coast. California, and now Texas, have experienced significant economic boosts from the technology and renewable energy sectors. The abundance of sunlight coupled with powerful solar panels and the rise of electric vehicles are truly transformative societal forces.

As a former transportation worker with investments in some international transport companies, my attention will be keenly focused on the earnings reports from Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL) and Knight-Swift (KNX). The latter represents the merger of two major over-the-road trucking firms.

The tech sector is also in the spotlight today, with IBM (IBM), General Dynamics (GD), and Texas Instruments (TXN) all reporting. IBM, a significant player in the upper echelons of the S&P 500, General Dynamics, a crucial supplier to our military, and Texas Instruments, a leader in embedded analog chips – a market benefiting significantly from the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of electronic devices across various industries, offering stable demand and strong margins due to the essential nature of their components. Texas Instruments' embedded analog chips offer advantages such as a broad portfolio, analog expertise, reliable parts at competitive prices, and product availability. They are used in various applications, including power management, sensing, and motor control.

This recent market pullback, while unsettling for some, presents a welcome opportunity for value investors. I've always found a sense of optimism in the potential for compounding returns when prices decline. It's an aspect often overlooked by the mainstream media, which tends to focus on negative narratives during election losses or periods of high volatility (as indicated by the VIX). This is precisely the kind of environment that value investors, traders, and dividend seekers alike should embrace with enthusiasm.


Disclaimer: Please remember, I am an investor sharing my personal observations and logging my thoughts for entertainment purposes. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing in this blog post should be construed as financial advice. It is crucial for readers to conduct their own thorough research and seek personalized investment guidance from a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.