Yesterday’s sharp sell-off in Blue Owl and several other BDC-related names caught a lot of people off guard. The catalyst was simple: Blue Owl announced that they sold a portion of their loans slightly below par. That single disclosure triggered a wave of fear — not just in their stock, but across the entire sector. Headlines focused on “discounted loan sales,” and investors reacted as if this were a sign of systemic weakness. But after thinking about it for nearly a full day, I’ve come to a different conclusion — one rooted in a basic truth that too many people forget: Every Sale Has Two Sides When something is sold below par, the instinct is to assume distress. But that’s only one possible explanation. In markets — whether we’re talking about stocks, bonds, loans, or even merchandise — professionals make decisions based on expectations. That’s the real root of this thesis. My Own Recent Trades Prove the Point Over the past few months, I’ve been buying U.S. Treasuries — ...
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