In my opinion, this month has been a clear example of how disciplined, rules‑based investing can feel both structured and uncertain at the same time. My thoughts are that prices have become more attractive as the market continues to decline… but I still question whether I am buying too frequently when relying on standard deviations as my primary targets.
Standard deviations, Fibonacci‑based Aggregated Appreciation sales targets, and dividend yields form the foundation of my trading targets. These three pillars shape when I enter, when I trim, and how I evaluate opportunity during periods of volatility. Even with the uncertainty that comes with declining markets, the system continues to guide my entries, and I follow it with intention.
In summary, the Fibonacci models enhance the concept of mean reversion by increasing the expected return as a stock declines. As the price moves down through additional standard deviations, the model assigns a higher sought return to the next trade iteration. For example, if a trade iteration originally sought a 5% gain from the purchase price… but the stock declined another standard deviation… the next iteration may seek a 5.5% gain instead. The deeper the decline, the more the model expects the eventual reversion to compensate for the increased risk and volatility.
Below is a summary of my trades for March. I am excluding all cost information and focusing strictly on the tickers, the actions taken, and the reasoning behind each move. This keeps the emphasis on process rather than performance, which is how I prefer to operate.
Trades Executed, Personal Account
- QYLD – QYLD
Increased monthly income. High yield, but I remain cautious about the current environment. - GIS – GIS
Income-focused addition. Scaled down to 82% of target. This ticker was favored by my system relative to others. - PFF – PFF
Added to income allocation. - D – D
DRIP entry. AIS candidate. - PFFV – PFFV
Multiple entries this month. Increasing monthly income. - AGNC – AGNC
Added twice during a heavy decline. Moved capital from HYSA to take advantage of the drop. - FCT – FCT
DRIP entries. - SCM – SCM
Several buys and trims. Management announced a repurchase program near 10% of shares outstanding, reinforcing dividend stability. Increased position for AIS. - CPB – CPB
Added to position. - WES – WES
Trimmed to capture gains. Missed the recent dividend date. - CAG – CAG
Purchased using candlestick signals for a swing setup. MOAV concept, learning. I bought too early, using this new model/measuring-stick. - AEP – AEP
Small exit. - BKLN – BKLN
Increased monthly income. Purchased after selling TSN. - TSN – TSN
Exit. - WEN – WEN
DRIP entry. - GOOG – GOOG
DRIP entry. - HSY – HSY
DRIP entry at a discounted price relative to my existing shares. - PRU – PRU
Added shares using volume-based MAOV signals. - MSFT – MSFT
DRIP entry. - PAYX – PAYX
Qualified AIS candidate. - CALM – CALM
Trim. - LQD – LQD
RePu entry.
My Reflections
My thoughts are that this month leaned heavily toward accumulation rather than trimming. The market decline created more opportunities than usual, and my system surfaced many qualified entries. Even so, I continue to question whether my standard deviation targets lead to buying too frequently during volatile periods. It’s something I will keep evaluating as the year progresses.
For now, I remain focused on income, AIS qualification, and disciplined execution. The system keeps me grounded, even when the market feels uncertain.
MAOV is a smoothed average of trading volume… a model that helps confirm whether price movements have real participation behind them. It’s new to me, since I’ve always leaned away from charts. My education and experience have prioritized probability models over visual indicators, and most of my decisions come from averages rather than patterns. Still, I can see how charts can also express probability in their own way, and MAOV has pushed me to expand the tools I’m willing to consider.
I spent time trying to educate myself further on MAOV, but I found it difficult to use consistently… and it reminded me that no strategy is ever 100%. Volume signals can help, but they can also mislead when the broader environment is unstable. The market is very complex right now, and even my Standard Deviation and Fibonacci‑based Aggregated Appreciation models have struggled to generate sell triggers. Instead, the downtrend continues to push buy signals while suppressing exits.
This doesn’t mean the system is broken. It simply means the market is in a phase where accumulation outweighs distribution… and my models are reflecting that reality. My intention is to stay disciplined, continue refining the tools I rely on, and remain patient until conditions shift and more balanced signals begin to form again.
Disclaimer
The information in this post reflects my personal opinions, research, and trading activity. It is not financial advice, investment guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Everyone’s financial situation and risk tolerance are different, and readers should do their own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. I may hold positions in the companies mentioned, and my views may change at any time based on new data or market conditions.