When I last wrote about
Over the last month, I’ve stress-tested my entry and exit parameters against the "flushes" of the opening bell across our family portfolios... from the Joint account with my Wife to my Daughter's IRA.
The result? An overhaul of the Medeiros Alpha Strategy (MAS) and the Augmented Income Strategy (AIS). I’ve tightened the timeframes, added a "Triple-Branch" momentum gauge, and integrated a logic layer that challenges the traditional Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).
The Geopolitical Context: Crude and Conflict
There is a war currently surrounding oil. The wealth of the world... nasty, dirty, stinky crude... is the center of a global tug-of-war. While some media outlets scream "World War," I see it more precisely: Israel and Iran are at war, Iran has declared war on our interests, and we have guaranteed Israel’s protection.
In this mess, long-term trends are too slow. The 2026 market is faster and more algorithmic than ever. To catch these turns without the noise, I’ve moved to a three-tiered momentum check: 10-day, 30-day, and 50-day windows.
The Triple-Branch Gauge: Checks, Balances, and Harmony
Why three? Perhaps it’s the American in me... realizing the importance of three branches for harmony. I believe a three-branch system is the only way to ensure checks and balances by a two-to-one consensus.
The 10-Day (The Scout): My early warning system. It detects if the immediate "vibe" has shifted.
The 30-Day (The Trend): The meat of the move. It filters out the one-day spikes and "head fakes."
The 50-Day (The Sentinel): The final arbiter. If a stock is below its 50-day average, the "Momentum Grave" is open, and I view them as "Discounted".
The Added Layer: Volatility-Adjusted Entry
I am a Quant Trader with several custom mathematical formulas to help with the selection of equities. In addition to the simple averages, I still utilize Standard Deviation and the last relative transaction to the equity, filtering moves based on previous cost-per-share and buy or sell movements. My evolution now involves a dual-layer filter, adding moving averages to Aggregated Appreciation formulas.
If a stock is selling below the 50-day, but above the others, I view it as "on sale." However, I will not pull the trigger on a new acquisition unless the current price is below the [Last Previous Purchase - 50Day_Standard_Deviation]. The opposite applies to selling. If a stock is trading above the 50 and 30, but slips below the 10-day "Scout," my sell logic activates. But I will not, "Pull the Trigger," unless the equity is trading above the purchase price plus the 50-day Standard Deviation. My sell targets scale using Fibonacci logic: as iterations increase, both the sought gain and the quantity of shares increase.
The Two Pillars: Growth vs. Production
The confusing parameter for many is the "Old Wealth" strategy. We can identify two groups that do not compete but serve different ends: Those that Grow and Those that Produce. I see this in Bonds too, and they offer a decent insight.
1. Savings Bonds: The Compounding Beast
I-Bonds are the "Compounding Beasts" of the ring. I favor them for growth, especially with a fixed-rate component. You receive no annual interest checks; instead, the interest is tethered to the principal and compounds internally. No taxes are paid as it compounds. If cash is needed... and hopefully tax deductions align to offset the hit... we can request a portion. I am heavier in Bonds than anything else because that State Tax Exemption is a massive edge in New Jersey.
1.a Marketable Treasuries: The Dividend Holding
Like stocks that return capital rather than reinvesting for expansion, Marketable Treasuries are my dividend-paying holdings. They aren't the biggest gainers in price, but they provide the "fuel" for our cash flow.
2. Dividend vs. Non-Dividend Equities
Some equities offer dividends that can be received as cash or reinvested (D.R.I.P.). If you reinvest, the money is received and immediately used to buy more shares... and yes, you still pay taxes on it.
2.a Non-Dividend or DRIP applied
Comparison: 10-Year Growth (April 2016 – April 2026)
To illustrate the difference between "Production" and "Reinvestment," look at a $1,000 investment made a decade ago:
| Metric | Tesla (TSLA) | Ford (F) |
| Strategy | Pure Growth / Reinvestment | Income / Capital Return |
| Dividend Yield | 0% | 5% (Historical Avg) |
| 10-Year Total Return | 2,510% | 115% (Reinvested) |
| Final Value ($1k) | $26,100 | $2,150 |
In addition to the logic discussed, I want to share a closing segment of the DivPay sheet. I use this sheet as my central source for Simple Moving Averages (SMA). The beauty of this setup is that the header can be adjusted to instantly update every dependent cell across the entire system... ensuring the "Sentinel" is always watching the right timeframe.
The Engine: Dynamic SMA Formula
Below is the Google Sheets code I use to define my momentum regime. By stepping back to
TODAY()-1, I ensure the signal is based on closed, immutable data... avoiding
the intraday "whipsaw" that traps so many retail traders.
The 50 Day, it can be copied to Columns M and N, with their timeframe held in row 1. L1 holds the timeframe value (50) and A2 is the first ticker (Column A) of the Spreadsheet. Column L Code:
=IF(ISTEXT($A2),
LET(
raw, GOOGLEFINANCE($A2,"price",TODAY()-L$1, TODAY()-1),
r, ROWS(raw),
prices, IF(r>1, INDEX(raw, SEQUENCE(r-1,1,2,1), 2), NA()),
avg, AVERAGE(prices),
IF($E2 <= avg, "Below "&L$1, "Above "&L$1)
),
"")
This formula pulls the historical data, strips the headers, calculates the average, and then outputs a simple status: Above or Below. It is the heart of my "Action Flow."